Gale Warning 793, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 210430 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
830 PM ADT FRI OCT 20 2006

UPDATE TO ZONE 120

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 998 MB LOW 450 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND WILL STRENGTHEN TO 
987 MB AS IT MOVES TO 50 NM NORTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND LATE SAT
MORNING. THE LOW WILL THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER EASTERN
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SAT AFTERNOON. A 992 MB LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY 
SAT EVENING WILL MOVE TO NEAR MIDDLETON ISLAND SUN AFTERNOON AT 
996 MB. 
$$

PKZ120-211400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
830 PM ADT FRI OCT 20 2006

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E TO NE WINDS INCREASING TO 50 KT...STRONGEST WINDS CAPE
CLEARE AND EAST. SEAS BUILDING TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS SUBSIDING TO
16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-211400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 20 2006

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-211400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 20 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE WIND 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. GUSTS
TO 40 KT IN BAYS AND PASSES AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT BUILDING TO 7
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS TO 35 KT IN
BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-211400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 20 2006

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING W WIND AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-211400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 20 2006

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N WIND 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. EAST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...SEAS 7 FT BUILDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 FT
WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. EAST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING
VARIABLE WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. EAST OF THE BARREN
ISLANDS...W WIND 30 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-211400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 20 2006

...GALE WARNING SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S WIND 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 10
FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-211400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 20 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-211400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 20 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
TO 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...NW WIND 15
KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-211400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT FRI OCT 20 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W WIND 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7
FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT FRI OCT 20 2006

.DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN OVER THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND ALASKA THIS MORNING.
A DEEP TROUGH STRETCHES FROM THE BERING SEA TO NEARLY THE HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS. A LONG FETCH OF MOISTURE ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THIS LOW IS
CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA WITH A LARGE RIDGE OFF THE
WESTERN COAST OF THE LOWER 48 STATES.

TWO LOWS OF INTEREST WILL BE DEVELOPING TODAY. ONE IS SPINNING UP IN
THE SOUTHERLY FETCH ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE BERING TROUGH. THIS LOW
WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN GULF THIS EVENING AND LOOKS TO MAKE LANDFALL
NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND MIDDAY SATURDAY. THE SECOND IS FORMING IN
THE FAST WESTERLY JET RUNNING ALONG 50 DEGREES LATITUDE WEST OF THE
ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW WILL REACH ATTU THIS AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA THIS EVENING. IT WILL REACH SAINT GEORGE ON
SATURDAY MIDDAY...ABOUT THE SAME TIME THE FIRST LOW MOVES INLAND.

AFTER SATURDAY THE MODELS BEGIN TO OFFER DIVERGENT SOLUTIONS...
THOUGH IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN RUNS FROM 24 HOURS AGO. THE
BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL BE OVER THE BERING
SEA AND/OR OVER MAINLAND ALASKA THROUGH NEXT WEEK...FOR CONTINUED
WET WEATHER.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 120.
         GALE WARNING 121 125 129 130 132 155 170 172 175 176 179.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG OCT 06