Small Craft Advisory 838, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
415 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...

...SUMMARY...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WHICH
WILL STICK AROUND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A NEW LOW FORMS OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA...AND A NEW LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

MODELS HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT TERRIBLY. FORECAST FAVORS GFS OVER
THE NAM/WRF AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA/KODIAK ISLAND FORECAST...
THE STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL COME TO
AN END BY TONIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...AS A WARM
FRONT MARCHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER KODIAK ISLAND...A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND
THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET. ANCHORAGE IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ONLY
LIGHT RAIN LATE TODAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OF CONCERN IS THE WINDS ALONG
THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE AND TURNAGAIN ARM. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT WINDS
WILL HIT WARNING CRITERIA...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A SOLID WIND
EVENT FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
RAIN WILL BE SLOW DUE TO BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON...AND
THE VALDEZ TO CORDOVA AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE MUCH LIGHTER
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN AREAS SUCH AS WHITTER
AND SEWARD. BY THE WEEKEND...A NEW LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF
ALASKA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KENAI SOUTHWARD. MOST OF MAINLAND
SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD HAVE A DRY WEEKEND.

...MAINLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA/EASTERN ALEUTIANS/EASTERN BERING
FORECAST...
WITH A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/SOUTHEAST BERING...UNSETTLED RAINY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER 45 MPH IN
PLACES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE INITIAL WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. ALSO OF
CONCERN ARE GALES EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST BERING
LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME STORM WINDS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE AREA WILL DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

...CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS FORECAST...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING SOME
RAIN. HOWEVER...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND STRATUS/FOG. A FAIRLY STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN AFFECT MAINLY THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 141 155 170 171 172 180 185 350. STORM
179 AND 499.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY SEP 06