Gale Warning 663, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 141451 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
650 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

UPDATED ZONE 130 AND 138.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR EARLY THU MORNING WILL
MOVE TO 60 NM NORTHWEST OF COLD BAY THU NIGHT AT 989 MB AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A 992 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP 360 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-150200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 30 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN. E OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-150200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
630 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
630 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
STRONGER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 142330
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-151400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH A 990 MB LOW 130 NM NORTH OF COLD BAY
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA ON FRIDAY AND WEAKEN BY SATURDAY
MORNING.  ON SATURDAY MORNING A NEW 990 MB LOW WILL FORM 330 NM SOUTH
OF KODIAK.  THIS LOW MAINTAIN ITS STRENGTH AND WILL MOVE TO 300 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK BY SUNDAY MORNING.

$$

PKZ120-151400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS BUILDING
TO 15 FT TOWARD THE MORNING. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-151400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...VARIABLE MAINLY S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-151400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. STRONGEST WIND AND HIGHEST SEAS
SOUTH AND WEST OF NAKED ISLAND. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. STRONGEST WIND AND HIGHEST SEAS
SOUTH AND WEST OF NAKED ISLAND. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. STRONGEST WIND AND HIGHEST
SEAS SOUTH AND WEST OF NAKED ISLAND. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-151400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SAT THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-151400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-151400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-151400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
6 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-151400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. STRONGEST WIND AND HIGHEST SEAS
SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. STRONGEST WIND AND HIGHEST SEAS
SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. STRONGEST WIND AND HIGHEST
SEAS SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. STRONGEST WIND AND HIGHEST SEAS
SOUTH OF THE FORELANDS.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-151400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
415 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

.DISCUSSION...

...SUMMARY...
MAIN FEATURE OF INTEREST FOR THE SHORT TERM IS A FAIRLY STRONG LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND SOUTHEAST BERING SEA WHICH
WILL STICK AROUND INTO EARLY SATURDAY. EVENTUALLY...THE PATTERN WILL
BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE FOR THE WEEKEND...AS A NEW LOW FORMS OVER
THE GULF OF ALASKA...A RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND
WESTERN MAINLAND ALASKA...AND A NEW LOW MOVES INTO THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.

MODELS HAVE THE SAME GENERAL IDEA THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT
THEN DIVERGE SOMEWHAT...BUT NOT TERRIBLY. FORECAST FAVORS GFS OVER
THE NAM/WRF AFTER FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA/KODIAK ISLAND FORECAST...
THE STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA WILL COME TO
AN END BY TONIGHT OVER ALL BUT THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...AS A WARM
FRONT MARCHES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF AND INTO THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND. OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT
OVER KODIAK ISLAND...A SIGN OF THINGS TO COME BY THIS AFTERNOON FOR
THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN KENAI PENINSULA AND
THE WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET. ANCHORAGE IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE ONLY
LIGHT RAIN LATE TODAY THROUGH LATE FRIDAY DUE TO STRONG DOWNSLOPE
CONDITIONS WITH THE SOUTHEAST FLOW. OF CONCERN IS THE WINDS ALONG
THE ANCHORAGE HILLSIDE AND TURNAGAIN ARM. DO NOT BELIEVE THAT WINDS
WILL HIT WARNING CRITERIA...BUT IT WILL CERTAINLY BE A SOLID WIND
EVENT FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE EASTWARD PROGRESS OF THE
RAIN WILL BE SLOW DUE TO BLOCKING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE YUKON...AND
THE VALDEZ TO CORDOVA AREA IS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE MUCH LIGHTER
RAINFALL TOTALS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAN AREAS SUCH AS WHITTER
AND SEWARD. BY THE WEEKEND...A NEW LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE GULF OF
ALASKA...BUT AT THIS TIME...MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE
FROM THE SOUTHERN TIP OF THE KENAI SOUTHWARD. MOST OF MAINLAND
SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD HAVE A DRY WEEKEND.

...MAINLAND SOUTHWEST ALASKA/EASTERN ALEUTIANS/EASTERN BERING
FORECAST...
WITH A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS/SOUTHEAST BERING...UNSETTLED RAINY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. GUSTY EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OVER 45 MPH IN
PLACES HAVE BEEN OCCURRING WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH THE INITIAL WARM
FRONT MOVING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. ALSO OF
CONCERN ARE GALES EXPECTED ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SOUTHEAST BERING
LOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME STORM WINDS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE AREA WILL DRY OUT FOR THE WEEKEND AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.

...CENTRAL AND WESTERN BERING/ALEUTIANS FORECAST...
A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...BRINGING SOME
RAIN. HOWEVER...FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...A RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER
THE AREA...BRINGING DRY WEATHER AND STRATUS/FOG. A FAIRLY STRONG
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN AFFECT MAINLY THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130 132 141 155 170 171 172 180 185 350. STORM
179 AND 499.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

FOISY SEP 06