Gale Warning 659, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 141122
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-150200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 988 MB LOW 190 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR EARLY THU MORNING WILL
MOVE TO 60 NM NORTHWEST OF COLD BAY THU NIGHT AT 989 MB AND REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH FRI NIGHT. MEANWHILE...A 992 MB LOW WILL
DEVELOP 360 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK FRI NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-150200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...SE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO E 30 KT
IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN. E OF MIDDLETON
ISLAND...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-150200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-150200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-150200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-150200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-150200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-150200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-150200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 15 KT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT AND FRI...S OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN. N OF KALGIN ISLAND...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-150200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT THU SEP 14 2006

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
STRONGER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT WED SEP 13 2006

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE THE SIBERIAN ARCTIC EXTENDS
SOUTH TO THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WHILE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO HOLD
OVER THE MAINLAND FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA.

SHORT TERM FORECAST...
THE MAIN ISSUE TODAY IS THE CONTINUED INCONSISTENCY OF THE MODEL
OUTPUT BEGINNING LATE FRI NIGHT. THERE REMAINS A HIGH LEVEL OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE POSITIONING AND STRENGTH OF THE STORM NOW
APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC. WE EXPECT
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND FROM THE WESTERN BERING SEA TO
MOVE OVER THE EASTERN BERING SEA FRI MORNING AS THE SUPPORTING UPPER
LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTH PACIFIC STORM MERGES INTO THIS TROUGH. THE
ISSUE IS THE NEWEST MODEL SOLUTION IS CLOSING THIS LOW ALOFT AND AS A
RESULT THIS HOLDS THE SURFACE SYSTEM MUCH FURTHER SOUTH THAN
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED AND MORE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE NAM. THE
BLOCKING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE GULF OVER THE MAINLAND
SHOULD HOLD BACK THE EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THIS STORM. THIS SHOULD
ALSO RESULT IN A NORTHERLY STORM TRACK AND MOST LIKELY RESULT IN THE
LOW MOVING FURTHER NORTH INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA AS FORECASTED BY
THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THE MAIN CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR
THIS AFTERNOON WILL REVOLVE AROUND TRENDING THE NEW FORECASTS TO THE
NEW MODEL OUTPUT. WE ARE RELUCTANT TO SELL OUT ON THE NEW OUTPUT DUE
TO THE INCONSISTENCY IN THE MODEL RUNS.

THE TIGHTENING GRADIENT OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION IS EXPECTED TO
PRODUCE A TYPICAL TURNAGAIN ARM WIND ALONG WITH THE STRONG CROSS
BARRIER FLOW AND RESULTANT DOWN SLOPE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE KENAI
MOUNTAINS. . WE DO NOT SEE A GOOD INDICATION OF A RAPIDLY BUILDING
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST REGION AND THEREFORE WILL
LEAVE THE FORECASTED WIND FOR SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AS IS.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO HOLD THE RAIN OUT OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL REGION AND

THE EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND COPPER RIVER BASIN ZONES THROUGH
FRI. THE TROPICALLY CONNECTED SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL STEER MOISTURE INTO KODIAK AND THE WEST SIDE
COOK INLET TO THE WEST SIDE OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE UPSLOPE REGIONS OF THE ALASKA RANGE.

LONGER TERM FORECAST...
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE INCONSISTENT RUN TO RUN IN THE LONGER TERM.
AS SUCH WE WILL MAINTAIN THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH VERY MINOR
TRENDING TOWARD THE NEW SOLUTION UNTIL THE MODELS BECOME MORE STABLE
AND CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. THE LAST COUPLE FO RUNS ARE SETTLING
ON A LOW SOUTHWEST OF THE GULF OF ALASKA ALONG WITH A STORM CENTERED
SOUTH OF ADAK AND WEAK HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CANADA INTO THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR.

HYDROLOGY...
THE FLOOD ADVISORY FOR THE NELCHINA RIVER HAS BEEN CANCELED SINCE
WATER LEVELS HAVE CRESTED BELOW FLOW STAGE AND THE GLACIER DAM LAKE
THAT RELEASED CAUSING THE HIGH WATER IS NOW EMPTY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE 130 132 150 155 160 165 170 350.
FIRE WEATHER...DONE.

SAM SEP 06