Small Craft Advisory 428, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT SUN MAY 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...

A WEAKENING 995 MB LOW SPINNING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA THIS
AFTERNOON CONTINUES TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE IN THE EASTERN
PART OF THE FORECAST AREA. A BROAD AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE INTERIOR THROUGH MONDAY. A 997 MB LOW SOUTH OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS ROTATES EAST TODAY AS A BROAD RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE
WESTERN BERING SEA AND KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. THE JET STREAM IS VISIBLE
ON THE SATELLITE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WHERE IS WILL REMAIN
THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK.

IN THE EAST...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER BRISTOL
BAY IS BRINGING MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES AND SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA INCLUDING THE AKPEN AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS.
THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GULF LOW DISSIPATING INTO
THE INTERIOR BY THIS EVENING ALLOWING THE NEXT ALEUTIAN LOW TO ENTER
THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MONDAY MORNING.  AS THE FIRST LOW IS ABSORBED
INTO THE MAINLAND IT WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS TO SOUTHCENTRAL TONIGHT.
 THE NEW GULF LOW WILL SLIDE EAST AND IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN
MUCH AS IT LACKS MUCH UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT. THIS NEW GULF LOW THEN
FOLLOWS MUCH THE SAME PATTERN OF THE PREVIOUS FEW DAYS BRINGING
SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
INTO MID WEEK.

IN THE WEST...ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC SLIDES THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIAN LOW EASTWARD AND IT THEN REPLACES THE CURRENT GULF
LOW.  BEHIND IT A BROAD RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN BERING TAKES HOLD
THROUGH MID WEEK.  BY WEDNESDAY YET ANOTHER LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN
BERING AND NUDGES THE RIDGE SOUTHEAST BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES TO SOUTHERN ALASKA INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAY 06