Small Craft Advisory 427, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN MAY 7 2006

.DISCUSSION...

COLD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PERSISTS OVER THE BERING STRAIT THIS MORNING
WITH WEAK LOBES OVER THE GULF AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...AND A CUT-OFF
LOW NEAR NUNIVAK ISLAND. A RIDGE LIES ACROSS THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA
AND NEAR ZONAL FLOW BETWEEN 40 AND 50 N CROSSES THE PACIFIC INTO THE
WEST COAST OF THE LOWER 48.

AT THE SURFACE...A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE
ALEUTIANS ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE WITH WEAK LOW CENTERS OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND SOUTH OF ADAK.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE GULF LOW WILL BE REABSORBED INTO
THE MAINLAND LOW THIS EVENING...BRINGING SOME PRECIPITATION INLAND
THROUGH TONIGHT. RIDGING BUILDS IN ALONG THE COAST MON WITH MORE
TURNAGAIN ARM WIND. THIS CUTS OFF AS THE ADAK LOW MOVES TO THE AK PEN
MON NIGHT. THIS MOVEMENT WILL BRING SNOW AND SOME RAIN TO THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS MON...AND THEN TO THE AKPEN MON NIGHT THROUGH
WED AS THE LOW BECOMES STATIONARY SOUTHWEST OF KODIAK AND WEAKENS.
THE POSITION OF THE WEAKENING LOW ASSURES ONSHORE FLOW INTO THE NORTH
GULF COAST DURING THE SAME PERIOD WITH PRECIP ONCE AGAIN LIMITED
MAINLY TO WINDWARD SIDES OF MOUNTAIN RANGES. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL
HOP THE RIDGELINE TOWARD THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND MATANUSKA VALLY. BY
THE END OF THE WEEK THE LOW PRESSURE OVER THE STATE WEAKENS WITH ONLY
SOME CLOUDS REMAINING.

OUT WEST...PASSAGE OF THE ADAK LOW TO THE EAST ONCE AGAIN SETS UP
SNOW SHOWERS ON PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE BERING. THIS
ENDS FROM THE WEST BEGINNING ON TUE AS A RIDGE CROSSES THE WESTERN
ISLANDS AND REACHES BRISTOL BAY ON FRI. THE RIDGE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY
A WEATHER FRONT THAT WILL BEGIN TO BRING SOME WARMER AIR...WITH SNOW
CHANGING TO RAIN...TO THE WESTERN BERING BEGINNING THU AND LASTING
INTO THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 138
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

DS MAY 06