Small Craft Advisory 426, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT MAY 6 2006

.DISCUSSION...DRIVING FORCE BEHIND THE WEATHER IS THE COLD UPPER
LEVEL LOW IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THIS HAS BEEN THE MAIN WEATHER
MAKER THE LAST FEW DAYS AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO INTO THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK NEXT WEEK.
AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY IS WEAKENING SLOWLY
AND DRIFTING NORTHWARD, THIS LOW HAS BEEN RESPONSIBLE FOR SNOW AND
RAIN IN THE BRISTOL BAY AREA TODAY.
A LOW THAT RECENTLY DEVELOPED EAST OF KODIAK WILL DRIFT TO JUST EAST
OF MIDDLETON ISLAND TOMORROW AND THEN DISSIPATE.
THIS LOW IS ENHANCING THE WINDS IN SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA TODAY AS IT
HAS SHARPENED THE PRE-FRONTAL RIDGING ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST
AHEAD OF A WEAK WEATHER FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW.
GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AND THEN RAPIDLY DIMINISH
AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AGAIN TODAY. THE ONLY SLIGHT DIFFERENCE
IN THE GULF OF ALASKA REGION IS THE MOVEMENT OF THE LOW EAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND SUNDAY. THE GFS ETA AND WRF HAVE SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT
POSITIONS WITH THE GFS BRINGING IT CLOSER TO THE SOUND WHILE ETA AND
WRF HAVE IT EAST OF MIDDLETON. ALL HAVE IT DIMINISHING IN THE
AFTERNOON AND THE MOST LIKELY TRACK IS THE ETA/WRF ONE. HOWEVER IT
WILL NOT HAVE A LARGE IMPACT ON FORECASTS EITHER WAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

MAY 06