Severe Thunderstorm Warning 50, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 250405
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1003 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

OKC145-250415-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0050.000000T0000Z-050325T0415Z/
WAGONER OK-
1003 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1015 PM CST FOR
WAGONER COUNTY...

AT 1001 PM CST...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS PRODUCING NICKEL
SIZE HAIL.  THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 20
MILES SOUTHEAST OF WAGONER TO PORTER...MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH.

THE LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OTHERWISE REMAIN OVER MAINLY
RURAL AREAS OF THE INDICATED COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST FRIDAY
MORNING FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3614 9557 3608 9557 3608 9521 3602 9523
      3597 9529 3592 9529 3581 9541 3581 9550
      3578 9561 3580 9563 3587 9566 3587 9582
      3591 9582 3591 9576 3617 9576 3617 9562

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
842 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
LESS DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND LINEAR FORCING ON THE COLD FRONT IS
GRADUALLY FORCING A LINE OF CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHEAST
OKLAHOMA...ELEVATED INSTABILITY OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG WILL PERSIST
FROM 850 MB UP ACROSS MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA...SO THE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT AND REACH WESTERN ARKANSAS.  WE
ARE IN CONFERENCE WITH THE SPC ON A NEW SVR TSTM WATCH.

THE MORE CELLUAR CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA HAS BEEN LOSING
ORGANIZATION ON THE WHOLE...BUT WILL LIKLEY NOT DISSIPATE GIVEN THE
ELVATED INSTABILITY...AND WE EXPECT THEM TO BE A HAIL THREAT FOR AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS AS THEY TRACK NORTHEAST.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1250 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA....WEST OF A MIAMI TO FORT SMITH LINE
        ONSET....LATE AFTERNOON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
 	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
		ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED...DRYWIND INDEX=0.26.
	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
		ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WERE
CONTINUING TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND DEW POINTS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  A
DRYLINE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN A NARROW BAND OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR.
ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SUPERCELLULAR...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

BY LATER THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED DURING THE
EVENING...AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL END
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SOUTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S HAVE LED TO WORSENING
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO
ALLEVIATE THESE CONDITIONS SOME.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...
KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BY MID WEEK...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
836 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0835 PM     HAIL             SAND SPRINGS            36.14N 96.11W
03/24/2005  1.75 INCH        TULSA              OK   STORM CHASER

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
837 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     HAIL             OOLOGAH                 36.45N 95.71W
03/24/2005  1.00 INCH        ROGERS             OK   STORM CHASER

&&

SFP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
848 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

ARZ019-250345-
CRAWFORD AR-
848 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 945 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD

AT 848 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 12
MILES SOUTHWEST OF UNIONTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. SOME
LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PLEASANT
HILL...UNIONTOWN...CONCORD...MULBERRY...MOUNTAINBURG...VAN BUREN...
ALMA...CEDARVILLE...CHESTER...SHIBLEY...FURRY...DYER...FIGURE FIVE...
RUDY...LOCKE AND MT GAYLER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH HAIL.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
853 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0853 PM     HAIL             TULSA                   36.13N 95.92W
03/24/2005  0.88 INCH        TULSA              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            INDEPENDANCE AND LEWIS

&&

SFP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
853 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

ARZ001>002-010>011-019>020-029-251000-
BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-
MADISON AR-SEBASTIAN AR-WASHINGTON AR-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
78 IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

BENTON                CARROLL               CRAWFORD
MADISON               WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS

FRANKLIN              SEBASTIAN

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...ROGERS...BENTONVILLE...OZARK...
CHARLESTON...BERRYVILLE...EUREKA SPRINGS...FORT SMITH...
VAN BUREN...FAYETTEVILLE...SPRINGDALE AND HUNTSVILLE

OKZ049-053>076-250700-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-CREEK OK-
DELAWARE OK-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-
MCINTOSH OK-MAYES OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-OKFUSKEE OK-
OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-
WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON OK-

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 77 REMAINS VALID UNTIL 1 AM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 25 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA
OKMULGEE              OSAGE                 OTTAWA
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER               WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHECOTAH...EUFAULA...CLAREMORE...
CATOOSA...SALLISAW...JAY...PAWHUSKA...HUGO...TAHLEQUAH...
STIGLER...BARTLESVILLE...NOWATA...OKEMAH...CHOUTEAU...MUSKOGEE...
STILWELL...MARIETTA...WESTVILLE...TULSA...WAGONER...COWETA...
MCALESTER...ANTLERS...CLAYTON...POTEAU...WILBURTON...OKMULGEE...
HENRYETTA...PAWNEE...MIAMI...VINITA AND SAPULPA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
854 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0824 PM     HAIL             3 N CLAYTON             34.63N 95.35W
03/24/2005  0.75 INCH        PUSHMATAHA         OK   PUBLIC

&&

NMK