Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 250145 RRA
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
745 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

OKC117-250230-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-050325T0230Z/
PAWNEE OK-
745 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 830 PM CST FOR
PAWNEE COUNTY...

AT 743 PM CST...STORM SPOTTERS REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT
WAS PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES
SOUTH OF MARAMEC...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...JENNINGS...
HALLETT...SKEDEE...TERLTON...BLACKBURN...CLEVELAND AND WESTPORT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. IF NO UNDERGROUND SHELTER IS AVAILABLE TAKE COVER ON THE
LOWEST FLOOR IN AN INTERIOR ROOM AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST FRIDAY
MORNING FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3621 9693 3606 9681 3618 9623 3645 9668

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
656 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
MESOSCALE OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GRIDS AT 00Z SHOW THAT THE ATMOSPHERE
IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA IS WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH RESPECT TO A SURFACE
PARCEL ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 75 / INDIAN NATION TURNPIKE.  SHEAR
FROM 0 TO 6KM IS 45 TO 65 KNOTS OVER ALL BUT OSAGE...PAWNEE AND
CREEK COUNTIES WHERE VALUES ARE MORE IN THE MIXED CELL MODE RANGE OF
30 TO 40 KNOTS.

THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED IN THE MOIST AXIS IN SOUTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA WILL EITHER SOON WEAKEN OR BECOME ELEVATED AS SURFACE
HEATING IS LOST.  ELEVATED INSTABILITY FIELDS FROM THE NAM SHOW
CAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG NEAR THESE STORMS NOW...SO THEY MAY JUST
BECOME ELEVATED SUPERCELLS OVER THE NEXT HOUR.

STORMS IN NORTHCENTRAL OKLAHOMA SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
AS IT MOVES INTO THE TULSA FORECAST AREA AS MOISTURE CONVERGENCE
INCREASES ALONG THE FRONT AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY REMAINS IN PLACE.

ANY LONG-LIVED CELL WILL HAVE A WIND AND HAIL POTENTIAL...SHIFTING
TO MORE OF A HAIL THREAT WITH TIME AS THE UPDRAFTS BECOME ROOTED
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

CELLS IN IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA ARE MOVING FROM A NEGATIVE
STORM-RELATIVE HELICITY ENVIRONMENT TO A POSITIVE ONE.  FOR NOW
ANTICYCLONIC STRUCTURE IS STILL NOTED ON TWO OF THE CELLS.  IT
WILL BE INTERESTING TO FOLLOW THE PROGRESS OF THE CELLS IN THIS
ENVIRONMENT...ITS LIKELY THAT SUBSEQUENT CELL SPLITS WILL FAVOR THE
CYCLONIC UPDRAFT AND THE ANTICYCLONIC ONES WILL DISSIPATE.
SPOTTERS NEAR THE STORMS SHOULD BE ALERT TO INFLOW AND UPDRAFTS ON
BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE MAIN CLOUD TOWER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1250 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA....WEST OF A MIAMI TO FORT SMITH LINE
        ONSET....LATE AFTERNOON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
 	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
		ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED...DRYWIND INDEX=0.26.
	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
		ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WERE
CONTINUING TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND DEW POINTS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  A
DRYLINE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN A NARROW BAND OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR.
ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SUPERCELLULAR...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

BY LATER THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED DURING THE
EVENING...AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL END
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SOUTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S HAVE LED TO WORSENING
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO
ALLEVIATE THESE CONDITIONS SOME.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...
KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BY MID WEEK...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
537 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

OKZ049-053>076-250700-
ADAIR OK-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-CREEK OK-
DELAWARE OK-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-
MCINTOSH OK-MAYES OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-OKFUSKEE OK-
OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-
WAGONER OK-WASHINGTON OK-

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
77 IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CST FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 25 COUNTIES

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA
OKMULGEE              OSAGE                 OTTAWA
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER               WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CHOUTEAU...CHECOTAH...EUFAULA...
CLAREMORE...CATOOSA...SALLISAW...JAY...HUGO...TAHLEQUAH...
STIGLER...NOWATA...OKEMAH...MUSKOGEE...STILWELL...MARIETTA...
WESTVILLE...TULSA...WAGONER...COWETA...BARTLESVILLE...MCALESTER...
ANTLERS...CLAYTON...POTEAU...WILBURTON...PAWHUSKA...OKMULGEE...
HENRYETTA...PAWNEE...MIAMI...VINITA AND SAPULPA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0622 PM     HAIL             4 NE ASHLAND            34.81N 96.02W
03/24/2005  1.00 INCH        PITTSBURG          OK   PUBLIC

&&

JBM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
705 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

OKZ054-055-250145-
OSAGE OK-WASHINGTON OK-
705 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 745 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OSAGE AND WASHINGTON

AT 705 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
WEST OF WOLCO...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...RAMONA...OCHELATA...DEWEY...
COPAN...AVANT...WOLCO...BARNSDALL...TALLANT AND BARTLESVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
714 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0639 PM     HAIL             BARTLESVILLE            36.75N 95.98W
03/24/2005  0.88 INCH        WASHINGTON         OK   STORM CHASER

&&

SFP

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
715 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

OKZ065-066-250215-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
715 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 815 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     OKMULGEE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 715 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
SOUTH OF OKFUSKEE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...WILSON...OKFUSKEE...
OKMULGEE...SCHULTER...MORRIS...ERAM...PRESTON AND BALD HILL.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HALF INCH HAIL.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ALERT IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
717 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

OKZ060-250200-
TULSA OK-
717 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 800 PM CST
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     TULSA

AT 717 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES
SOUTH OF SKIATOOK...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT
WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OWASSO...SKIATOOK AND
COLLINSVILLE.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.