Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Tulsa, OK

000 
WWUS54 KTSA 250301
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
901 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

OKC135-250311-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-050325T0330Z/
SEQUOYAH OK-
901 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SEQUOYAH COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED...

THE THUNDERSTORM HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA AND WEAKENED BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS...THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CST FRIDAY
MORNING FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 400 AM CST FRIDAY MORNING FOR NORTHWESTERN
ARKANSAS AND EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

LAT...LON 3538 9488 3565 9458 3565 9451 3561 9447
      3540 9444 3533 9456 3534 9461 3530 9464
      3529 9463 3528 9466 3531 9466 3535 9471
      3535 9481 3538 9484

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
758 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...
MCINTOSH COUNTY STORM HAS JUST TRANSFORMED BACK TO A
CYCLONIC-UPDRAFT DOMINATED STORM AS THE ANTICYCLONIC UPDRAFT
WEAKENED AND APPEARS TO BE DISSIPATING AS THE CELLS MOVES INTO A
MORE POSITIVE SR-HELICITY ENVIRONMENT.  WHILE THE CELL IS ELEVATED
AND A TORNADO RISK APPEARS LOW...SPOTTERS SHOULD STILL MONITOR THE
STORM CLOSELY...MONITORING BOTH THE NORTH AND SOUTH SIDES OF THE
MAIN CLOUD TOWER.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1250 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1250 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA....WEST OF A MIAMI TO FORT SMITH LINE
        ONSET....LATE AFTERNOON

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
 	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
		ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...LIMITED...DRYWIND INDEX=0.26.
	AREA...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
		ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  SOUTHERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WERE
CONTINUING TO DRAW MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA...AND DEW POINTS
WILL CLIMB INTO THE 50S THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  A
DRYLINE WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE SURFACE LOW GENERALLY IN THE VICINITY
OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE DRY LINE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN A NARROW BAND OF MOIST UNSTABLE AIR.
ALTHOUGH THE DEPTH OF THE MOISTURE REMAINS SOMEWHAT IN QUESTION...
DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES SUGGEST THAT ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SUPERCELLULAR...WITH A POSSIBILITY OF
TORNADOES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING.

BY LATER THIS EVENING A WARM FRONT WILL BE NEAR THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR. STORMS WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY ELEVATED DURING THE
EVENING...AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS FAR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
SPREAD ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS OVERNIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL LIKELY PROVIDE A LARGE HAIL THREAT. STORMS WILL END
DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF
THE AREA.

IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...SOUTH WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 60S AND 70S HAVE LED TO WORSENING
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALSO HELP TO
ALLEVIATE THESE CONDITIONS SOME.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
IT NOW APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL BE SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY...
KEEPING THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA. AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND...CAUSING WIDESPREAD RAIN TO DEVELOP SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. SUFFICIENT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT FOR A FEW
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE. ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM
WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA BY MID WEEK...BRINGING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
CONTINUE TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND GRAPHICAL
INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
802 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0753 PM     HAIL             OOLOGAH                 36.45N 95.71W
03/24/2005  0.88 INCH        ROGERS             OK   STORM CHASER

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
808 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0806 PM     HAIL             4 N OOLOGAH             36.50N 95.71W
03/24/2005  1.00 INCH        ROGERS             OK   STORM CHASER

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
809 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0809 PM     HAIL             CLEVELAND               36.31N 96.46W
03/24/2005  0.88 INCH        PAWNEE             OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
811 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0811 PM     HAIL             4 S HOMINY              36.36N 96.39W
03/24/2005  0.75 INCH        OSAGE              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

SFP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
818 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     HAIL             2 W COLLINSVILLE        36.36N 95.87W
03/24/2005  1.75 INCH        TULSA              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL

&&

NMK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
823 PM CST THU MAR 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             1 S HOMINY              36.40N 96.39W
03/24/2005  0.88 INCH        OSAGE              OK   AMATEUR RADIO

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL...POSSIBLY LARGER

&&

NMK