Severe Thunderstorm Warning 188, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

.SYNOPSIS...SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING IN VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH H85 SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY VALUES 8+ G/KG TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA. LINE OF CONVECTION
CENTERED ON SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...WITH
FRONT MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE MARINE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...AND THEREFORE
LOWERED POPS TO NEAR ZERO AS DRY AIR INVADES FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES AROUND GFS MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH BROAD UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OFFSHORE
WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AS A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL US TO THE EAST COAST. FLOW
WILL RETURN TO ONSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL PASS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THAT FRONT WILL PASS LATE NEXT WEEK. /77

&&

.FIRE...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S. DURATION REQUIRED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND WILL
PASS ON TO THE DAY SHIFT IF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      78  55  78  52 /  90  30  10  10
PENSACOLA   79  57  77  55 /  90  50  10  10
DESTIN      76  62  76  58 /  90  50  10  10
EVERGREEN   76  57  75  46 /  80  30  10  10
WAYNESBORO  71  50  75  47 /  80  20  10  10
CAMDEN      75  54  74  48 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY GMZ650-670.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY GMZ655-675.
MS...NONE.

&&

/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
630 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-011130-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
630 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE
AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH
THIS AFTERNOON.

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES THIS
AFTERNOON AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES AND COMBINES
WITH AN ENHANCED TIDAL RANGE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...PATCHY FOG FORMING
OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHTS.

THE NEXT IN A SERIES OF FRONTS IMPACTS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND
RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN RETURNING TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD REMAIN ON ALERT FOR
ACTIVATION TODAY.