Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
241 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...LATEST SURFACE AND UPPER
AIR ANALYSES SHOW COLD FRONT ALONG THE PECOS RIVER AND WARM
FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE GULF WHICH TIES INTO A STALLED FRONT
EXTENDING INTO THE TENESSEE VALLEY AND THE MIDSOUTH. ETA40 WAS
BRINGING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR CWA 6 TO 12 HR LATER THAN GFS
BUT THE MODELS ARE WITHIN 3 TO 4 HOURS OF EACH OTHER AS OF 12Z RUN.
RESPECTIVELY WE ARE NOW TIMING FROPA LATE TOMORROW NEAR SUNSET.
ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET MAY BRING PERIODS OF VERY HEAVY PCPN
AND POSSIBLY SEVERE WX...TO THE GULF COAST. THE WAY THINGS WANT
TO PLAY OUT IS THAT TONIGHT THE FRONT WILL MAKE A RUN AT US
OVERNIGHT AND THEN STALL UNTIL THE BIG TROUGH GETS BY US LATER
ON SATURDAY. ATTENDANT FRONTOGENESIS FORECAST WITH A FINAL PUSH
SOUTHEAST WOULD MEAN A CLEAN SWEEP CLEARING OUT THE SKY ON SUNDAY
THUS SALVAGING PART OF THE WEEKEND FOR OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES. AS
EVAPOTRANSPIRATION MUST BE CONSIDERED OVER 36 TO 48 HR AS WELL
AS SIMPLE EVAPORATION... WE EXPECT PATCHY FOG MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...NO CHANGES TO BE MADE RIGHT
NOW. INDICATIONS ARE THAT A HIGH WILL BUILD UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST
AND KEEP IT SETTLED AWHILE. OUR CONFIDENCE IS SHAKEN THOUGH...DUE TO
A LARGE DEVIATIONS AMONG THE NCEP ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. NONETHELESS...
NCEP CITES THAT A MAJORITY OF ENSEMBLE MEMBERS INDICATES GRADUALLY
RISING HEIGHTS IN THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.MARINE...FRONT IS SCHEDULED TO PASS OVER MARINE AREAS IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING TIME FRAME. WITH THE DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE
TIMING...OPTED FOR A BLEND OF GFS/ETA. TIL FROPA...A STEADY SOUTH
WIND WILL KEEP SEAS HIGH...ESPECIALLY OFFSHORE AREAS...SO PUT OUT A
SEAS BASED SCA FOR LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. AFTER FROPA...WINDS
WILL TRANSITION FROM OFFSHORE TO EASTERLY INTO THE COMING WORK WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE GETS SQUEEZED EASTWARD OVER THE EASTERN CONUS.
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE CENTRAL US EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL
SWITCH WINDS BACK TO ONSHORE LATE MONDAY INTO MID-WEEK...INCREASING
A BIT AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES AND A FRONT APPROACHES THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT STALLS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY AIR ARRIVING BEHIND THE FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
UNLIKELY TO BRING RH TO THE POINT OF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH BEFORE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. RH CAN QUICKLY
REBOUND AS OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS AND BECOMES DOMINATED BY LOCAL
EFFECTS. DISPERSION WILL BE MODERATELY HIGH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      67  79  55  78 /  60  70  20  20
PENSACOLA   70  77  57  77 /  60  80  40  20
DESTIN      69  78  59  74 /  30  80  40  20
EVERGREEN   66  78  57  76 /  60  80  20  10
WAYNESBORO  64  74  49  76 /  80  50  10  10
CAMDEN      65  76  54  75 /  70  80  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...SCA INTO SATURDAY GMZ650-670.
FL...SCA INTO SATURDAY GMZ655-675.
MS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
200 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-300000-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
200 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. THE MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE INTO SATURDAY.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS WILL ADVANCE
NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THE LOW
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH LEVELS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL HELP GIVE WAY TO STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF STATES TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS THE...STORM PREDICTION
CENTER IN NORMAN HAS PLACED SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE FOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH A FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE NEEDED
LATE TONIGHT.