Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
500 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2005

.SYNOPSIS...SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES MOVING IN VERY BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE...WITH MAIN TROUGH AXIS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST. BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ON THE INCREASE WITH H85 SPECIFIC
HUMIDITY VALUES 8+ G/KG TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA. LINE OF CONVECTION
CENTERED ON SURFACE MOISTURE AXIS FROM NORTHERN ALABAMA TO SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S ACROSS MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE...WILL ADVANCE EAST ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE
REGION. THE PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THIS EVENING...WITH
FRONT MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE MARINE ZONES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
DOMINATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE SHORT TERM...AND THEREFORE
LOWERED POPS TO NEAR ZERO AS DRY AIR INVADES FROM THE NORTH.
TEMPERATURES AROUND GFS MAV GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW
SCATTERED POPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVES
MOVE THROUGH BROAD UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.MARINE...ONSHORE WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF A FRONT
WHICH WILL PASS THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. OFFSHORE
WIND WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY...BECOMING MORE EASTERLY BY LATE
MONDAY AS A HIGH MOVES FROM THE CENTRAL US TO THE EAST COAST. FLOW
WILL RETURN TO ONSHORE BY MONDAY NIGHT AND STRENGTHEN AHEAD OF A WEAK
FRONT THAT WILL PASS THE AREA EARLY WEDNESDAY BRINGING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THAT FRONT WILL PASS LATE NEXT WEEK. /77

&&

.FIRE...DRIER AIR BEHIND THE FRONT...COMBINED WITH WARM AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL ALLOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES TO DROP
INTO THE LOWER 30S. DURATION REQUIRED FOR A RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS
THE NORTHWEST FLORIDA PANHANDLE IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME...AND WILL
PASS ON TO THE DAY SHIFT IF A FIRE WEATHER WATCH MAY BE NEEDED.
SURFACE DEWPOINTS MODERATE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      78  55  78  52 /  90  30  10  10
PENSACOLA   79  57  77  55 /  90  50  10  10
DESTIN      76  62  76  58 /  90  50  10  10
EVERGREEN   76  57  75  46 /  80  30  10  10
WAYNESBORO  71  50  75  47 /  80  20  10  10
CAMDEN      75  54  74  48 /  80  20  10  10

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY GMZ650-670.
FL...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY GMZ655-675.
MS...NONE.

&&

/22

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
200 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-300000-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
200 PM CDT FRI APR 29 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AS AN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA. THE MODERATE SOUTH WINDS
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL CREATE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS
ALONG THE ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COASTLINE INTO SATURDAY.

A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EAST TEXAS WILL ADVANCE
NORTHEAST OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY IN RESPONSE TO A DEEPENING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM TRACKING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY. AHEAD OF THE LOW
INCREASING ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH HIGH LEVELS OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL HELP GIVE WAY TO STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND
CENTRAL GULF STATES TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE OVER NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHWEST ALABAMA LATE TONIGHT. AT THIS THE...STORM PREDICTION
CENTER IN NORMAN HAS PLACED SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI... SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE FOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING WITH A FRONT CROSSING THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS MAY BE NEEDED
LATE TONIGHT.