Severe Thunderstorm Warning 65, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WWUS54 KMAF 151221
SVSMAF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
721 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

TXC317-151245-
/O.CON.KMAF.SV.W.0065.000000T0000Z-050515T1245Z/
MARTIN-
721 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 745 AM CDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN MARTIN COUNTY...

AT 718 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
DETECT A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. 
THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF TARZAN...OR 22 MILES 
NORTHWEST OF STANTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE...THREE
LEAGUES AND FLOWER GROVE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING MEANS THAT SEVERE WEATHER IS OCCURRING 
OR IS IMMINENT. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH... HAIL THREE-QUARTERS
OF AN INCH IN DIAMETER OR LARGER... VERY HEAVY RAIN... AND DEADLY 
LIGHTNING ARE ALL LIKELY. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS SEVERE STORM
MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER NOW.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3237 10219 3219 10213 3250 10174 3250 10211

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
551 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

.UPDATE...
WILL SEND AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO INCREASE POPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION ONGOING OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING IN MOIST...SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  A FEW STRONG STORMS RESULTING.  IN ADDITION...
MCS HEADING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST
INFLOW AHEAD OF IT...AND SOME INDICATIONS ON REGIONAL RADAR OF
A BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COMPLEX...IT COULD
BE AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY...
EXCEPT MORE SO...AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST OVER
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.  SINCE SOME HEATING OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL OCCUR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE HEADING FOR
THESE AREAS...THINK WE/LL SEE EXTENSIVE TSRA DEVELOPMENT.  0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE AT LEAST 25 TO 35 MPH...AND IS
ALSO INDICATED TO INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KT BY 16/00Z.  SINCE WE/LL
HAVE EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT.  MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE 10 TO 15 KT...BUT INSTABILITY
COULD OFFSET THIS.

LONG TERM...
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/
EARLY TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE.  SINCE
TIME IS SHORT...WILL NOT FIDDLE WITH GRIDS BEYOND TONIGHT MUCH.
BESIDES...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA...AND HOLD SWAY
BY MIDWEEK.  SO...TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-160902-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
502 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 (402 AM MDT SUN MAY 15 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  IN ADDITION...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL ON SATURDAY.

THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING...BUT
SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS ON MONDAY COULD BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN YOUR AREA.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS TO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS...AND EASTWARD TO THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND PERMIAN
BASIN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
145 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 AM     HAIL             8 SW CARLSBAD           32.32N 104.33W
05/15/2005  1.75 INCH        EDDY               NM   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPOTTER REPORTED GOLF
            BALL SIZE HAIL 3 MILES WEST OF CAVERN CITY AIR TERMINAL.

0142 AM     HAIL             7 SW CARLSBAD           32.33N 104.32W
05/15/2005  1.75 INCH        EDDY               NM   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL WAS REPORTED BY FIRE DEPARTMENT
            PERSONNEL ONE QUARTER MILE EAST OF CAVERN CITY AIR
            TERMINAL.

&&

SN