Flash Flood Warning 8, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 151555
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
1055 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

TXC335-151715-
MITCHELL-
1055 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT FOR MITCHELL
COUNTY...

AT 1051 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN OVER THE WARNED AREA.

SOME LOCATIONS AFFECTED BY THE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN
INCLUDE...COLORADO CITY AND WESTBROOK.

FLASH FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS... STREETS AND UNDERPASSES...LOW
WATER CROSSINGS... AND LOW LYING FARMLAND IS LIKELY. DO NOT DRIVE
ACROSS FLOODED ROADS.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE. TURN
AROUND... DONT DROWN.

TO REPORT FLOODING OR SEVERE WEATHER ONLY... CALL THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN MIDLAND AT 1 800 597 3220.

LAT...LON 3213 10116 3212 10069 3247 10070 3250 10072
      3251 10116

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
551 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

.UPDATE...
WILL SEND AN UPDATE SHORTLY TO INCREASE POPS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 214 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005/

SHORT TERM...
CONVECTION ONGOING OVER THE CWA THIS MORNING IN MOIST...SLIGHTLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  A FEW STRONG STORMS RESULTING.  IN ADDITION...
MCS HEADING FOR SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...AND WITH EAST/SOUTHEAST
INFLOW AHEAD OF IT...AND SOME INDICATIONS ON REGIONAL RADAR OF
A BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE COMPLEX...IT COULD
BE AROUND LONG ENOUGH TO MAKE IT THROUGH SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
AND INTO THE PERMIAN BASIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT A REPEAT PERFORMANCE OF CONVECTION TODAY...
EXCEPT MORE SO...AS STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PERSIST OVER
THE WESTERN FRINGE OF THE CWA.  SINCE SOME HEATING OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS WILL OCCUR BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...AND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE HEADING FOR
THESE AREAS...THINK WE/LL SEE EXTENSIVE TSRA DEVELOPMENT.  0 TO
6 KM BULK SHEAR IS PROGGED TO BE AT LEAST 25 TO 35 MPH...AND IS
ALSO INDICATED TO INCREASE TO 35 TO 45 KT BY 16/00Z.  SINCE WE/LL
HAVE EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW AT THE SURFACE AND NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT...SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS COULD RESULT.  MID LEVEL
WINDS ARE ONLY PROGGED TO BE 10 TO 15 KT...BUT INSTABILITY
COULD OFFSET THIS.

LONG TERM...
TROUGH AXIS IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR THE AREA BY LATE MONDAY NIGHT/
EARLY TUESDAY...DEPENDING ON WHICH MODEL YOU BELIEVE.  SINCE
TIME IS SHORT...WILL NOT FIDDLE WITH GRIDS BEYOND TONIGHT MUCH.
BESIDES...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA...AND HOLD SWAY
BY MIDWEEK.  SO...TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO BE THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE
FOR MUCH OF THE EXTENDED.

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.

&&

99/99

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
502 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-160902-
ANDREWS-BIG BEND AREA-BORDEN-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-CRANE-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-DAWSON-ECTOR-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-GAINES-
GLASSCOCK-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-
HOWARD-LOVING-MARFA PLATEAU-MARTIN-MIDLAND-MITCHELL-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-REAGAN-
REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-SCURRY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-
TERRELL-UPTON-VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-WARD-WINKLER-
502 AM CDT SUN MAY 15 2005 (402 AM MDT SUN MAY 15 2005)

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST LOCATIONS
IN THE OUTLOOK AREA TODAY.  SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  IN ADDITION...
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL ON SATURDAY.

THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING...BUT
SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY BY LATE EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF THE
OUTLOOK AREA MONDAY...WITH MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND WEST
TEXAS ON TUESDAY.  ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS ON MONDAY COULD BECOME STRONG
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCIES...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD MONITOR THIS SITUATION AND TAKE
APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD SEVERE WEATHER THREATEN YOUR AREA.
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING FROM THE SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO PLAINS TO THE DAVIS
MOUNTAINS...AND EASTWARD TO THE STOCKTON PLATEAU AND PERMIAN
BASIN.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND