Flash Flood Warning 78, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

000 
WGUS74 KMAF 142155
FFSMAF

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
454 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

TXC371-142230-
PECOS-
454 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT FOR PECOS
COUNTY...

AT 452 PM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED FLASH FLOODING IN IRAAN. UP TO 
HALF A FOOT OF WATER WAS REPORTED FLOWING THROUGH SEVERAL CITY 
STREETS. WIDESPREAD MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES OVER THE WARNED 
AREA. 

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. MOST FLOODING DEATHS ARE PREVENTABLE. TURN
AROUND... DONT DROWN.


LAT...LON 3053 10320 3011 10261 3029 10260 3031 10238
      3063 10240 3072 10184 3094 10193 3104 10235
      3134 10298 3076 10353

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
207 PM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

.SHORT TERM...
WIDESPREAD STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS WITH THIS
DANGEROUS FLOOD SITUATION AS STORMS TRAIN ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
RAINFALL IS TROPICAL IN NATURE AND VERY HEAVY WITH RADAR UNDER
ESTIMATING TOTALS.  WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
TONIGHT WITH FF WATCH RUNNING THROUGH SHORT TERM.  HAVE TO KEEP
DISCUSSION SHORT.

.LONG TERM...
GFS CONSISTENT IN EJECTING MORE SHORTWAVE ENERGY FROM THE OLD MEXICO
UPPER LOW MONDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST...NUMEROUS EAST
SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING IN A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
WILL EXTEND THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY DUE
TO SATURATED GROUNDS AND ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED.
ANOTHER SHEAR AXIS/SHORTWAVE TO IMPACT THE AREA AGAIN ON TUESDAY...
WILL KEEP THE CHANCE POPS GOING IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

A  DRYING TREND WILL COMMENCE WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES STRENGTHENS AND
BUILDS WESTWARD. WAS RELUCTANT TO DROP 10-20 POPS AS A SURFACE TO
700 MILLIBAR TROUGH WILL BE IN PLACE WITH AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IN
ADDITION ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE
REGION FRIDAY AND OR SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH
THIS FEATURE.

LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH WET GROUNDS ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BIG SPRING TX              68  78  67  88 /  90  60  40  30
CARLSBAD NM                67  78  63  91 /  60  50  30  30
DRYDEN TX                  70  80  69  91 /  80  50  40  30
FORT STOCKTON TX           68  78  68  89 /  90  50  40  30
GUADALUPE PASS TX          63  73  62  82 /  60  50  30  30
HOBBS NM                   66  76  64  89 /  50  50  30  30
MARFA TX                   61  72  58  81 /  70  50  30  40
MIDLAND INTL AIRPORT TX    68  77  67  88 /  90  50  40  30
ODESSA TX                  69  80  68  89 /  90  50  40  30
WINK TX                    70  82  69  95 /  90  50  30  40

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM MDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     CENTRAL LEA COUNTY...EDDY COUNTY PLAINS...GUADALUPE
     MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY...NORTHERN LEA COUNTY...AND
     SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 PM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ANDREWS...BIG BEND AREA...BORDEN...CRANE...DAVIS/APACHE
     MOUNTAINS AREA...DAWSON...ECTOR...GAINES...GLASSCOCK...HOWARD...
     LOVING...MARFA PLATEAU...MARTIN...MIDLAND...MITCHELL...PECOS...
     PRESIDIO VALLEY...REAGAN...REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS
     PECOS...SCURRY...TERRELL...UPTON...WARD...AND WINKLER.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM CDT MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS...AND VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR.

&&

72/12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
454 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-142000-
GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS OF EDDY COUNTY-EDDY COUNTY PLAINS-
NORTHERN LEA COUNTY-CENTRAL LEA COUNTY-SOUTHERN LEA COUNTY-GAINES-
DAWSON-BORDEN-SCURRY-ANDREWS-MARTIN-HOWARD-MITCHELL-
VAN HORN AND HIGHWAY 54 CORRIDOR-REEVES COUNTY AND UPPER TRANS PECOS-
LOVING-WINKLER-ECTOR-MIDLAND-GLASSCOCK-WARD-CRANE-UPTON-REAGAN-
DAVIS/APACHE MOUNTAINS AREA-PECOS-PRESIDIO VALLEY-MARFA PLATEAU-
BIG BEND AREA-TERRELL-GUADALUPE MOUNTAINS-
454 AM CDT SUN AUG 14 2005 /354 AM MDT SUN AUG 14 2005/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW MEXICO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS A LARGE PART OF THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT. SOILS ARE NEAR SATURATION IN MANY PLACES AND
ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS WILL QUICKLY GENERATE RUNOFF. ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND THE NORTHERN PERMIAN BASIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE FAVORED TO DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF A SLOW MOVING
COLD FRONT TODAY. AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH INTO THE PERMIAN
BASIN BY EVENING THE CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO SHIFT SOUTH
AND EAST. ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN FLOODING OF CREEKS...ARROYOS...AND RIO GRANDE
TRIBUTARIES. RIO GRANDE RIVER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED BECOME ELEVATED
BY TONIGHT. ALSO LOCAL DOWNBURST WINDS TO 60 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE
OUTLOOK AREA ON MONDAY. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE
SEVERE... HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE
STORMS. WITH THE GROUND ALREADY SATURATED...FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
LOCAL SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY OFFICIALS SHOULD MONITOR THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR POSSIBLE FLOODING PROBLEMS THROUGH MONDAY.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WATCHES...WARNINGS...ADVISORIES...
AND STATEMENTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN
MIDLAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE INTERNET AT /LOWER CASE/
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/MIDLAND