Tornado Warning 25, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WWUS54 KLUB 130311
SVSLUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1008 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

TXC153-130330-
/O.CON.KLUB.TO.W.0025.000000T0000Z-050513T0330Z/
FLOYD TX-
1008 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

...A TORNADO WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1030 PM CDT FOR FLOYD COUNTY...

AT 1004 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THE MOST 
DANGEROUS PART OF THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES SOUTH OF DOUGHERTY 
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS IS THE SAME STORM THAT PRODUCED A DAMAGING TORNADO IN CROSBY 
COUNTY. IN ADDITION TO THE TORNADO THREAT...VERY LARGE HAIL UP TO 
THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS ARE POSSIBLE.

TORNADOES AT NIGHT ARE ESPECIALLY DANGEROUS. DO NOT WAIT UNTIL YOU
SEE OR HEAR THE TORNADO...IT MAY BE TOO LATE. TAKE COVER NOW

LAT...LON 3384 10106 3384 10130 3390 10122 3390 10121
      3398 10112 3398 10107 3399 10106

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HEATING ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CAPE RESULT VERY STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IF STORMS CROSS
BOUNDARY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY
ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSIST WITH VIGOROUS ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO SE PANHANDLE TOWARD
MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS
DEVELOP MESOSCALE SYSTEM IN THE CHILDRESS AREA TOWARD THE RED RIVER.
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATION SEEMS LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE BOUNDARY AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL END UP WILL BE OF IMPORTANCE AND DICTATE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MOVE FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BETTER CHANCE POPS AND
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACTIVITY
APPEARS IT WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER
MOVING INTO EAST AND SOUTH ZONES LATE...THUS KEPT POPS HIGHER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER.

.LONG TERM...RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD TO OUR WEST WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH AS COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY. DRIER PATTERN MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO CROSS RIDGE AND GENERATE SHOWERS WEST MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION...BUT A LITTLE EARLY TO SPECULATE ON PATTERN BEYOND 72
HOURS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST BY MONDAY...WITH IMPRESSIVE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER LOOKING
MORE LIKELY WITH SOME CONSISTENCY AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  80  49  72 /  40  20  20  20
TULIA         56  83  50  74 /  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     61  84  51  75 /  40  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     61  86  51  75 /  40  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  85  52  75 /  40  30  40  20
BROWNFIELD    62  88  52  76 /  40  30  40  30
CHILDRESS     65  82  54  76 /  60  40  40  20
SPUR          66  86  54  76 /  40  40  40  20
ASPERMONT     67  85  59  76 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

TXZ021>044-131630-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1130 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MORTON...TO FLOYDADA...TO PADUCAH. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS TODAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE STATIONARY OR MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT
NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE DEPENDANT ON SURFACE HEATING.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MODERATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER...ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A THREAT
OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

TONIGHT...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY FORM OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE
THREAT AREA WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CONVECTION AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED HEADER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
840 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

TXZ021>023-027-028-033-034-039>041-130200-
BAILEY-CASTRO-COCHRAN-HOCKLEY-LAMB-LYNN-PARMER-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
840 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

TORNADO WATCH 260 WILL HAS BEEN CANCELED. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...BUT AT THIS TIME THE
TORNADO AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT HAS DIMINISHED.

TXZ024>026-029>032-035>037-130700-
BRISCOE-CHILDRESS-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-HALE-HALL-LUBBOCK-
MOTLEY-
840 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 263 UNTIL
2 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

BRISCOE...CHILDRESS...COTTLE...CROSBY...DICKENS...FLOYD...HALE...
HALL...LUBBOCK AND MOTLEY.

THIS INCLUDES THE COMMUNITIES OF...
SILVERTON...CHILDRESS...PADUCAH...CROSBYTON...SPUR...FLOYDADA...
PLAINVIEW...MEMPHIS...LUBBOCK AND MATADOR.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
846 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0840 PM     TORNADO          2 S LORENZO             33.64N 101.54W
05/12/2005                   CROSBY             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

GS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
855 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0850 PM     HAIL             RALLS                   33.68N 101.38W
05/12/2005  1.75 INCH        CROSBY             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            REPORTED BY RALLS FIRE DEPT

0850 PM     TORNADO          5 W RALLS               33.68N 101.47W
05/12/2005                   CROSBY             TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TWO TORNADOES BETEEN RALLS AND LORENZO AS REPORTED BY
            RALLS FIRE DEPT

&&

RCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
902 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0856 PM     HAIL             9 E ABERNATHY           33.84N 101.69W
05/12/2005  0.75 INCH        HALE               TX   STORM CHASER

&&

RCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
915 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0912 PM     HAIL             10 W ESTELLINE          34.55N 100.61W
05/12/2005  2.00 INCH        HALL               TX   PUBLIC

            AT PARNELL COMMUNITY

&&

RCB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
923 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0900 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W RALLS               33.68N 101.42W
05/12/2005  70 MPH           CROSBY             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            POWER LINES DOWN. WIND SPEED ESTIMATED

&&

RCB