Flash Flood Warning 4, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WGUS74 KLUB 130312
FFSLUB

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1010 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

TXC191-130445-
HALL TX-
1010 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT FOR HALL
COUNTY...

AT 1008 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER MOST OF 
SOUTHERN HALL COUNTY.  RADAR ESTIMATES 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN NEAR 
AND WEST OF TURKEY.  

SOME LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO TURKY.  

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

TO REPORT FLOODING...HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3447 10094 3433 10094 3433 10045 3463 10044
      3459 10093

$$

000 
WGUS74 KLUB 130407
FFSLUB

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1103 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

TXC191-130445-
HALL TX-
1103 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1145 PM CDT FOR HALL
COUNTY...

AT 1102 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHEAST 
HALL COUNTY TO THE SOUTH OF ESTELLINE. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW AS MUCH 
AS 4 TO 5 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN NEAR TURKEY AND 3 TO 4 INCHES OF 
SOUTHEAST HALL COUNTY...SOUTH OF ESTELLINE. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
ESTELLINE.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3447 10095 3431 10094 3432 10042 3463 10044
      3459 10094

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HEATING ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CAPE RESULT VERY STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IF STORMS CROSS
BOUNDARY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY
ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSIST WITH VIGOROUS ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO SE PANHANDLE TOWARD
MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS
DEVELOP MESOSCALE SYSTEM IN THE CHILDRESS AREA TOWARD THE RED RIVER.
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATION SEEMS LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE BOUNDARY AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL END UP WILL BE OF IMPORTANCE AND DICTATE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MOVE FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BETTER CHANCE POPS AND
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACTIVITY
APPEARS IT WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER
MOVING INTO EAST AND SOUTH ZONES LATE...THUS KEPT POPS HIGHER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER.

.LONG TERM...RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD TO OUR WEST WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH AS COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY. DRIER PATTERN MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO CROSS RIDGE AND GENERATE SHOWERS WEST MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION...BUT A LITTLE EARLY TO SPECULATE ON PATTERN BEYOND 72
HOURS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST BY MONDAY...WITH IMPRESSIVE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER LOOKING
MORE LIKELY WITH SOME CONSISTENCY AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  80  49  72 /  40  20  20  20
TULIA         56  83  50  74 /  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     61  84  51  75 /  40  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     61  86  51  75 /  40  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  85  52  75 /  40  30  40  20
BROWNFIELD    62  88  52  76 /  40  30  40  30
CHILDRESS     65  82  54  76 /  60  40  40  20
SPUR          66  86  54  76 /  40  40  40  20
ASPERMONT     67  85  59  76 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

TXZ021>044-131630-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1130 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MORTON...TO FLOYDADA...TO PADUCAH. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS TODAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE STATIONARY OR MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT
NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE DEPENDANT ON SURFACE HEATING.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MODERATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER...ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A THREAT
OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

TONIGHT...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY FORM OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE
THREAT AREA WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CONVECTION AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
715 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             2 N QUITAQUE            34.40N 101.06W
05/12/2005  2.75 INCH        BRISCOE            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
738 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     HAIL             RANSOM CANYON           33.53N 101.68W
05/12/2005  1.75 INCH        LUBBOCK            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
810 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0801 PM     HAIL             2 E RANSOM CANYON       33.53N 101.65W
05/12/2005  2.50 INCH        LUBBOCK            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LOCATED AT BUFFALO SPRINGS.

&&

GS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
814 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0804 PM     HAIL             PLAINVIEW               34.19N 101.72W
05/12/2005  1.75 INCH        HALE               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING ALSO REPORTED IN PLAINVIEW

&&

GS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
821 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0817 PM     HAIL             PLAINVIEW               34.19N 101.72W
05/12/2005  1.00 INCH        HALE               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

GS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
837 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     TSTM WND GST     6 SE LUBBOCK            33.51N 101.80W
05/12/2005  60 MPH           LUBBOCK            TX   PUBLIC

            ROOF BLOWN OFF A CONVENIENT STORE.

&&

GS