Flash Flood Warning 3, NWS Lubbock, TX

000 
WGUS74 KLUB 130228
FFSLUB

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
924 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

TXC045-153-189-437-130315-
SWISHER TX-BRISCOE TX-FLOYD TX-HALE TX-
924 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT FOR HALE...
FLOYD...BRISCOE AND SWISHER COUNTIES...

AT 924 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO 
INDICATE VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA...ESPECIALLY 
PARTS OF BRISCOE AND FLOYD COUNTIES.  RADAR AND SATELLITE ESTIMATES 
SHOW THAT RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 8 TO 10 INCHES MAY HAVE FALLEN OVER 
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST BRISCOE AND NORTHWEST FLOYD COUNTIES.  ONE 
RAINFALL REPORT EAST OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN AT CAPROCK CANYONS STATE 
PARK SHOWED 3.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAD FALLEN BY 9 PM WITH HEAVY RAIN 
CONTINUING TO FALL. 

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO SOUTH 
PLAINS...CLAYTONVILLE...VALLEY SCHOOLS...CAPROCK CANYON STATE PARK...
SILVERTON AND QUITAQUE.

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...COUNTRY ROADS...NORMALLY DRY WASHES AND
ARROYOS...AS WELL AS FARMLAND ALONG THE BANKS OF CREEKS AND STREAMS.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT
QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY
IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3422 10173 3419 10108 3434 10098 3455 10097
      3440 10172

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HEATING ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CAPE RESULT VERY STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IF STORMS CROSS
BOUNDARY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY
ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSIST WITH VIGOROUS ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO SE PANHANDLE TOWARD
MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS
DEVELOP MESOSCALE SYSTEM IN THE CHILDRESS AREA TOWARD THE RED RIVER.
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATION SEEMS LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE BOUNDARY AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL END UP WILL BE OF IMPORTANCE AND DICTATE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MOVE FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BETTER CHANCE POPS AND
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACTIVITY
APPEARS IT WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER
MOVING INTO EAST AND SOUTH ZONES LATE...THUS KEPT POPS HIGHER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER.

.LONG TERM...RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD TO OUR WEST WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH AS COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY. DRIER PATTERN MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO CROSS RIDGE AND GENERATE SHOWERS WEST MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION...BUT A LITTLE EARLY TO SPECULATE ON PATTERN BEYOND 72
HOURS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST BY MONDAY...WITH IMPRESSIVE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER LOOKING
MORE LIKELY WITH SOME CONSISTENCY AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  80  49  72 /  40  20  20  20
TULIA         56  83  50  74 /  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     61  84  51  75 /  40  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     61  86  51  75 /  40  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  85  52  75 /  40  30  40  20
BROWNFIELD    62  88  52  76 /  40  30  40  30
CHILDRESS     65  82  54  76 /  60  40  40  20
SPUR          66  86  54  76 /  40  40  40  20
ASPERMONT     67  85  59  76 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

TXZ021>044-131630-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1130 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MORTON...TO FLOYDADA...TO PADUCAH. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS TODAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE STATIONARY OR MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT
NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE DEPENDANT ON SURFACE HEATING.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MODERATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER...ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A THREAT
OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

TONIGHT...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY FORM OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE
THREAT AREA WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CONVECTION AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
619 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TORNADO          3 NNW SOUTH PLAINS      34.26N 101.33W
05/12/2005                   FLOYD              TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
634 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     TORNADO          10 SW QUITAQUE          34.26N 101.18W
05/12/2005                   FLOYD              TX   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

GS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
647 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     HAIL             3 NW WILSON             33.35N 101.76W
05/12/2005  0.75 INCH        LYNN               TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

GS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
654 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0650 PM     HAIL             SLATON                  33.44N 101.64W
05/12/2005  1.00 INCH        LUBBOCK            TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

0650 PM     HAIL             1 E QUITAQUE            34.37N 101.04W
05/12/2005  1.75 INCH        BRISCOE            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
711 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             3 SE WOODROW            33.42N 101.81W
05/12/2005  1.75 INCH        LUBBOCK            TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            GOLFBALL SIZE HAIL REPORTED 1/2 MILE EAST OF THE
            INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND 41

&&

GS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
715 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0714 PM     HAIL             2 N QUITAQUE            34.40N 101.06W
05/12/2005  2.75 INCH        BRISCOE            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

GS