Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Lubbock, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
330 PM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

.SHORT TERM...
SCATTERED SEVERE CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS HEATING ALONG BOUNDARY OVER THE WESTERN SOUTH PLAINS AND
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE AND ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND CAPE RESULT VERY STRONG
UPDRAFTS WITH POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES IF STORMS CROSS
BOUNDARY AND TAKE ADVANTAGE OF HIGHER LOW LEVEL SHEAR/HELICITY
ENVIRONMENT. OTHERWISE...THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS WILL
PERSIST WITH VIGOROUS ROTATING UPDRAFTS. LOW LEVEL JET IS FORECAST
TO INTENSIFY OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS INTO SE PANHANDLE TOWARD
MIDNIGHT WITH STRONG SURFACE TO 850 MB MOISTURE ADVECTION. MODELS
DEVELOP MESOSCALE SYSTEM IN THE CHILDRESS AREA TOWARD THE RED RIVER.
AN EASTWARD PROPAGATION SEEMS LIKELY WITH HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...WHERE BOUNDARY AND REINFORCING COLD FRONT
WILL END UP WILL BE OF IMPORTANCE AND DICTATE MESOSCALE FORCING FOR
ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS...DRYLINE WILL LIKELY MOVE FARTHER EAST
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN SOUTH PLAINS WITH BETTER CHANCE POPS AND
SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. ACTIVITY
APPEARS IT WILL SHIFT SOUTH WITH BOUNDARY WITH SHOWERS/THUNDER
MOVING INTO EAST AND SOUTH ZONES LATE...THUS KEPT POPS HIGHER ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN TIER.

.LONG TERM...RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BUILD TO OUR WEST WITH SHOWER
ACTIVITY MAINLY SOUTH AS COOL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUES ON
SATURDAY. DRIER PATTERN MAY BE SHORT LIVED AS SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST
TO CROSS RIDGE AND GENERATE SHOWERS WEST MOVING SOUTHEAST INTO
INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW. GFS IS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
PRECIPITATION...BUT A LITTLE EARLY TO SPECULATE ON PATTERN BEYOND 72
HOURS. THIS SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE EAST BY MONDAY...WITH IMPRESSIVE
UPPER RIDGE EXPANDING NORTH FROM NORTHERN MEXICO INTO TEXAS BY
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK WITH HOT AND DRY WEATHER LOOKING
MORE LIKELY WITH SOME CONSISTENCY AMONG MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FRIONA        54  80  49  72 /  40  20  20  20
TULIA         56  83  50  74 /  40  40  30  20
PLAINVIEW     61  84  51  75 /  40  30  30  20
LEVELLAND     61  86  51  75 /  40  30  30  20
LUBBOCK       62  85  52  75 /  40  30  40  20
BROWNFIELD    62  88  52  76 /  40  30  40  30
CHILDRESS     65  82  54  76 /  60  40  40  20
SPUR          66  86  54  76 /  40  40  40  20
ASPERMONT     67  85  59  76 /  30  40  40  30

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.

&&

06

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1130 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

TXZ021>044-131630-
BAILEY-BRISCOE-CASTRO-CHILDRESS-COCHRAN-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-
GARZA-HALE-HALL-HOCKLEY-KENT-KING-LAMB-LUBBOCK-LYNN-MOTLEY-PARMER-
STONEWALL-SWISHER-TERRY-YOAKUM-
1130 AM CDT THU MAY 12 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE EXTREME
SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...NORTHERN SOUTH PLAINS...AND ROLLING PLAINS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS AREA IS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
MORTON...TO FLOYDADA...TO PADUCAH. THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTH PLAINS
AND ROLLING PLAINS ARE IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

A COLD FRONT IS LOCATED ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHERN
SOUTH PLAINS TODAY. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE STATIONARY OR MOVE
SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY. THIS FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE LIFT
NECESSARY FOR THUNDERSTORM FORMATION. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MORE DEPENDANT ON SURFACE HEATING.
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY ERODE DURING THE DAY LEADING TO
SUFFICIENT SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA. MODERATE SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW
FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
HOWEVER...ENHANCED SHEAR ALONG THE COLD FRONT WILL LEAD TO A THREAT
OF AN ISOLATED TORNADO IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA.

TONIGHT...A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX MAY FORM OVER THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL ROLLING PLAINS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THIS COMPLEX WILL BE
HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

SEVERE CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AGAIN ON FRIDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE
THREAT AREA WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDANT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE
CONVECTION AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1250 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1244 AM     HAIL             7 S PLAINVIEW           34.09N 101.72W
05/13/2005  1.75 INCH        HALE               TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
102 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 AM     HAIL             CONE                    33.80N 101.39W
05/13/2005  2.00 INCH        CROSBY             TX   STORM CHASER

&&

MRC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
126 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 AM     HAIL             1 SW LOCKNEY            34.11N 101.45W
05/13/2005  1.75 INCH        FLOYD              TX   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
130 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

TXZ024>026-029>032-035>038-131100-
BRISCOE-CHILDRESS-COTTLE-CROSBY-DICKENS-FLOYD-HALE-HALL-KING-LUBBOCK-
MOTLEY-
130 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2005

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 266 EFFECTIVE UNTIL 6 AM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

HALE...FLOYD...MOTLEY...BRISCOE...HALL...CHILDRESS...COTTLE...
LUBBOCK...CROSBY...DICKENS AND KING.

THIS WATCH REPLACES TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 263.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND
OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.

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