Flash Flood Warning 42, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
318 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REMAIN POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAINFALL/SIGNIFICANT FLOODING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.

TODAY:
WILL EXTEND CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTH CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTHEAST KS UNTIL 17Z TODAY. ONGOING MCS FROM EASTERN KS INTO
NORTHWESTERN MISSOURI HAS BEEN SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKBUILDING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL KS. SOUTHWESTERLY 35 KT LOW-LEVEL JET IS FEEDING
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN EXTENT OF THIS MCS. IN
ADDITION, UPPER DIVERGENCE OCCURRING OVER EASTERN KS IN RIGHT REAR
QUAD OF UPPER JET EXTENDING FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO IOWA.
PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT AS HIGH AS IT GETS AT 2 INCHES. AS A RESULT
OF THE BACKBUILDING MCS, WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO SEE STORMS TRAINING
ACROSS SOME OF THE SAME AREAS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KS. THE
HILLY TERRAIN OF THE FLINT HILLS COULD EASILY EXACERBATE THE
FLOODING POTENTIAL. RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR REMAIN
POSSIBLE AT LEAST EARLY THIS MORNING. OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN REPORTED
AT CNU ASOS RECENTLY. THE 00Z ETA AND GFS SUGGESTED THE UPPER JETSTREAK
SHIFTING SLOWLY EASTWARD THIS MORNING, AND THE HEAVIEST CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS BY
15Z. LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THE ETA (AND EVEN GFS) HINT THAT A
REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL RESIDE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
KS. IF THE ATMOSPHERE CAN RECOVER VIA DECREASING CLOUDS, STRONG
INSTABILITY WOULD DEVELOP AS DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 70S POOL ALONG THE
BOUNDARY. SO WILL RETAIN A LOW (20-30%) CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN
EASTERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

TONIGHT:
NEXT STRONGLY ADVERTISED COLD FRONT WILL BE APPROACHING CENTRAL KS
TOWARD 12Z FRIDAY PER 00Z GFS/ETA. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA/NORTHWEST KS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WILL PROPAGATE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO OUR CENTRAL
KS COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. HIGHEST POPS (40%) SLATED THERE.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY:
STRONG UPPER TROF/LOW WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO GRADUALLY PUSH
SOUTHWARD THROUGH OUR FORECAST AREA. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH MUCH OF THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING HOURS. STRONGLY
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS WILL BE
SUPPORTIVE OF SCATTERED STRONG-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. LATER FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY, THE COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN KANSAS, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES GREATLY DIMINISHING OR ENDING.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY:
00Z GFS HAS SHOWN SOME CHANGES IN HOW IT DEVELOPS/EVOLVES NEXT UPPER
TROF OVER THE NORTHWEST DURING THIS PERIOD, AS IT EJECTS SOME
INITIAL ENERGY OUT OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z UKMET DOES NOT SHOW THIS SCENARIO,
MAINTAINING ONE LONGWAVE UPPER TROF FROM WESTERN CANADA INTO THE
NORTHWEST CONUS. PREFER NOT TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT
FORECAST THIS MORNING. STILL CALLING FOR TEMPERATURES RISING TO
ABOVE NORMAL WITH THE NEXT CHANCE OF STORMS TOWARD MIDWEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    93  72  93  68 /  60  20  30  30
HUTCHINSON      93  71  92  68 /  50  20  30  20
NEWTON          92  72  92  68 /  60  20  30  20
ELDORADO        92  73  92  68 /  70  30  30  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   95  74  94  69 /  50  20  30  30
RUSSELL         94  69  89  65 /  10  30  30  20
GREAT BEND      95  70  91  67 /  10  30  30  20
SALINA          94  71  91  67 /  60  40  30  20
MCPHERSON       93  71  91  68 /  60  30  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     94  72  94  69 /  60  20  30  30
CHANUTE         90  71  92  69 /  80  30  30  30
IOLA            90  71  92  68 /  80  30  30  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON THURSDAY FOR KSZ050-KSZ051-KSZ052-KSZ053-
KSZ067-KSZ068-KSZ069-KSZ070-KSZ071-KSZ072-KSZ082-KSZ083-KSZ091-
KSZ092-KSZ093-KSZ094-KSZ095-KSZ096-KSZ098.

&&

CARUSO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
102 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-251200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
102 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE PRIMARY WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KANSAS, ESPECIALLY NORTH OF HIGHWAY 400 AND EAST OF
K-15 HIGHWAY. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT
FLOODING. LOCALIZED FLOODING FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA AS
WELL OVERNIGHT.

A FEW STRONG STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL, WHICH COULD
PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH AND HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING IN
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THESE STORMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE KANSAS REGION.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JUST AS THE LAST
FEW DAYS, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SOME FLOODING. LATER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ABLE TO DEFINE THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THE REST OF THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER, CALLS FROM LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ARE ENCOURAGED TO ASSESS
POTENTIAL HIGH WATER PROBLEMS AND FLOODING.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED/LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1158 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1143 PM     FLOOD            8 SW HUTCHINSON         37.98N 98.02W
08/24/2005                   RENO               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER OVER WHITESIDE ROAD.

&&

KED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1205 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

KSZ069-250545-
BUTLER-
1205 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR BUTLER COUNTY...

AT 1201 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM TOWANDA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
ELDORADO...EAST TO THE BUTLER GREENWOD COUNTY LINE. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING NORTHEAST AROUND 30 MPH.

HAIL TO 1/2 INCH INCH DIAMETER AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS. IN ADDITION...THE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING
FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FREQUENT AND DANGEROUS REFRAIN FROM
USING ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES AND STAY OFF THE TELEPHONE EXCEPT IN
CASES OF EMERGENCY.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

ES

KSZ051>053-067>072-083-094>096-098>100-250735-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
206 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 743 HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
FOR ALL AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. HOWEVER, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN, ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE
TURNPIKE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS.

KLEINSASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
226 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 AM     FLOOD            PEABODY                 38.17N 97.11W
08/25/2005                   MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR STREET FLOODING.

&&

KED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
227 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0133 AM     FLOOD            FLORENCE                38.24N 96.93W
08/25/2005                   MARION             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MINOR STREET FLOODING.

&&

KED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
238 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

KSZ067-068-250815-
HARVEY-RENO-
238 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2005

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN HARVEY AND EASTERN RENO COUNTIES...

AT 235 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT
THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING 6 MILES NORTH OF HAVEN...OR 9
MILES SOUTHEAST OF HUTCHINSON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PENNY TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL...AND WINDS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THESE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE, OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

HOWERTON