Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
819 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MESO TRENDS/OVERNIGHT FORECAST...

SUDDENLY VERY BUSY THIS EVENING, AS SEVERE CONVECTION DEVELOPED
RAPIDLY NORTH FROM OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. ALTHOUGH
PERHAPS INITIALLY TOO FAR NORTH WITH DEVELOPMENT, THE MESOETA MAY
HAVE BEST HANDLE ON FURTHER EVOLUTION OF LATE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE TRENDS. LATEST SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOWED
CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS DEVELOPING ALONG TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME FROM
NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE MESOETA SUGGESTS THIS
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM THRU THE LATE EVENING, WITH AT
LEAST SCATTERED, TO AT TIMES NUMEROUS, STORMS AFFECTING MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 56. THEREFORE
HAVE EXPANDED FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS AREA, LESS A FEW COUNTIES IN
THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA.

UPDATED GRIDS TEXT PRODUCTS COMING OUT TO REFLECT LATEST AND
EXPECTED TRENDS...

KED

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 336 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005/

DISCUSSION...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE LOCATION OF HEAVIEST PRECIP FOR
TONIGHT THROUGH FRI AS ACTIVE LATE SUMMER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE.

TONIGHT-THU:
WILL GO AHEAD AND CANCEL THE CURRENT FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND ISSUE ANOTHER ONE FOR ONLY THREE COUNTIES IN SE
KS. WILL GO WITH A WATCH FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES AND ALSO THIS
WOULD BE THE MOST LIKELY COUNTIES TO BE AFFECTED. MOST OF CWA WILL
BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF UPPER JET FROM
00-06Z. IT APPEARS AFTER 06Z THE BETTER ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 850MB
CONVERGENCE SHIFTS EAST OVER EXTREME EAST KS AND MO. SO FEEL THE
BEST SHOT AT SOME FLOODING TONIGHT WOULD BE BETWEEN 00-06Z TONIGHT.
THE GFS AND UK KEEP THE HEAVIER PRECIP NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA
WITH ETA A BIT FURTHER SOUTH. WITH THIS DISCREPANCY, WILL ONLY GO
WITH THOSE THREE COUNTIES FOR WATCH TONIGHT. HOWEVER, CURRENTLY
MONITORING WEST-CENTER OK ALONG WITH WEST KS FOR ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. IF EITHER OR BOTH OF THESE
AREAS CAN ORGANIZE AN MCS, EVENING SHIFT MAY WANT TO EXPAND FLOOD
WATCH. THE PRECIP SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING EAST THROUGH THE DAY THU
WITH MOST OF THE AREA PRECIP FREE BY THU AFTERNOON. FEEL THE MAIN
AREAS OF PRECIP THU WILL BE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND EAST OF
FORECAST AREA.

JUST AS THE LAST FEW DAYS MAX TEMPS WILL BE HELD DOWN BY VERY MOIST
GROUNDS AND IT SEEMS THE GFS/MAV NUMBERS ARE WAY OVERDONE.

THU NIGHT-SAT:
STRONG UPPER WAVE WILL DIP SOUTH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON THU
NIGHT. THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A CYCLONICLLY CURVED JET WILL
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN NE AND SW
IOWA. CORFIDI VECTORS WOULD TRACK ANYTHING THAT DEVELOP UP THERE
SOUTH AND MAY AFFECT THE NE PERIPHERY OF FORECAST AREA THU NIGHT.
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY SHOULD SINK SOUTH BEHIND THIS STRONG WAVE
THROUGH THE DAY FRI AND SHOULD BE THE FOCUS FOR MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE BEST SHOT FOR PRECIP SAT AND SAT NIGHT LOOKS TO BE OVER
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA CLOSER TO WHERE THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SITUATED. JUST HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS
SHOULD BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH THESE DAYS AS FRONT REALLY
DOES NOT SLAM THOUGH SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR.

WILL WARM MAX TEMPS FOR FRI AND SAT CLOSER TO NORMAL VALUES BUT AM
HESITANT TO GO TOO HIGH WITH CONTINUED MOIST GROUNDS.

SUN-WED:
LEFT SUN THROUGH TUE DRY FOR NOW AS THERE SHOULD BE SOME SUBSIDENCE
BETWEEN THE WAVE THAT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES AND
OUR NEXT STRONG WAVE DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WILL START
TO INTRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN ON WED AS THIS NEXT POWERFUL
UPPER WAVE STARTS TO DIG OVER THE ROCKIES PLACING MOST OF FORECAST
AREA IN FAVORABLE DIFFLUENCE SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THIS TIME THE GFS
SEEMS TO BE DIGGING THIS SYSTEM DEEPER AND A BIT SLOWER THAN THE ECM
WHICH GOES NEGATIVE TILT WITH IT OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
NEVERTHELESS THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK SHOULD BE ACTIVE ACROSS THE
PLAINS.

WARMED MAXS UP FOR MON AND TUE AS WARM 850MB TEMPS START TO SPREAD
NORTH AHEAD OF APPROACHING WAVE. HOWEVER, STILL A BIT HESITANT TO GO
TOO MUCH ABOVE CLIMO WITH SOME RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POSSIBLE.

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    70  92  71  91 /  50  30  20  30
HUTCHINSON      70  92  70  91 /  40  20  20  30
NEWTON          70  91  71  91 /  60  30  20  30
ELDORADO        70  91  72  91 /  60  40  20  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   71  93  73  92 /  50  30  20  30
RUSSELL         68  93  68  89 /  30  10  30  30
GREAT BEND      69  94  69  90 /  30  10  30  30
SALINA          69  93  70  91 /  40  30  40  40
MCPHERSON       69  92  70  91 /  50  30  30  30
COFFEYVILLE     71  90  73  92 /  60  50  20  30
CHANUTE         71  89  72  92 /  60  50  20  40
IOLA            71  89  71  91 /  60  50  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 AM THURSDAY FOR KSZ050-KSZ051-KSZ052-KSZ053-
KSZ067-KSZ068-KSZ069-KSZ070-KSZ071-KSZ072-KSZ082-KSZ083-KSZ091-
KSZ092-KSZ093-KSZ094-KSZ095-KSZ096-KSZ098.

&&

DARMOFAL/LAWSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
833 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-251200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
833 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL MIDNIGHT. DAMAGING WINDS TO 75 MPH
WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. HOWEVER
AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE OF INCREASING CONCERN
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, TO
TO THE SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 56. THIS MAY RESULT IN RENEWED
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY MORNING IN
SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN
WITH THESE STORMS.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE KANSAS REGION.
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
FRONT, PARTICULARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. JUST AS THE LAST
FEW DAYS, ANY STORM THAT DEVELOPS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
SOME FLOODING. LATER OUTLOOKS WILL BE ABLE TO DEFINE THE MAIN
THREATS FROM THESE STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE) HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/HWOICT.HTM

KED/LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
923 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     HAIL             2 E ABBYVILLE           37.97N 98.17W
08/24/2005  0.75 INCH        RENO               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
933 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0922 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 N YATES CENTER        37.88N 95.73W
08/24/2005  60 MPH           WOODSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
951 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     FLOOD            2 N EUREKA              37.85N 96.29W
08/24/2005                   GREENWOOD          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAKE ROAD NORTH OF THE CITY OF EUREKA HAS BEEN CLOSED DUE
            TO WATER OVER THE ROAD.

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
956 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0953 PM     HAIL             9 NNE YATES CENTER      38.00N 95.70W
08/24/2005  0.88 INCH        WOODSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1026 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0800 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WICHITA                 37.69N 97.34W
08/24/2005                   SEDGWICK           KS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            8 INCH IN DIAMETER TREE LIMBS DOWN AND FENCE BLOWN OVER.

&&

BRW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1034 PM CDT WED AUG 24 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1034 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNW THAYER            37.56N 95.51W
08/24/2005  60 MPH           NEOSHO             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BRW