Special Marine Warning 37, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
250 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

UPDATED FOR SVR TSTM WATCH 687

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FORMING ALONG
VARIOUS BOUNDARIES FROM THIS EARLY MORNINGS MCS. MORE CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICH IS FORMING A
PRONOUNCED LINE OF TSRA OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN
LAKE ERIE. WHEREAS THE CELLS CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
BEEN SHOWING FAST DEVELOPMENT AND COLLAPSE...THE CELLS CLOSER TO
AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE PERSISTENT AND WILL POSE THE GREATER
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL GO
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TSRA DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE
NIGHT...TAPERING BACK TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEITHER NAM OR GFS ARE DEPICTING THE MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NOR THE LINEAR MCS FORMING OVER LOWER MICH.
WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING AN END
TO THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD
TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY. DEWPOINTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AND DRY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WILL STAY IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DAYTIME HIGHS SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ON
THURSDAY THEN A REINFORCING BUT DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH LATE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER 70S AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE UPPER JET IS NORTH, AND A
SURFACE RIDGE KEEPS A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA.  AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN LATE MONDAY, AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
DURING THE EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTS OVER 40
KNOTS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS
VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...SVR TSTM WATCH 687 UNTIL 11 PM EDT.
.MARINE...NONE.

SHORT TERM...HIBBERT
LONG TERM/AVIATION...APB

NWS ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-270844-
ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
MONROE-NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-OSWEGO-
SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-WYOMING-
445 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SFM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
525 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MAYVILLE                42.25N 79.50W
07/26/2005                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN INTERSECTION ROUTES 29 AND 430.

0509 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYVILLE                42.25N 79.50W
07/26/2005                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN INTERSECTION OF ROUTES 29 AND 430.

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYVILLE                42.25N 79.50W
07/26/2005                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON ROAD AT LONG POINT STATE PARK.

0509 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYVILLE                42.25N 79.50W
07/26/2005                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN INTERSECTION ROUTES 29 AND 430.

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYVILLE                42.25N 79.50W
07/26/2005                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE DOWN LONG POINT STATE PARK.

&&

SAGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
525 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0509 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYVILLE                42.25N 79.50W
07/26/2005                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE LIMBS DOWN INTERSECTION OF ROUTES 29 AND 430.

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MAYVILLE                42.25N 79.50W
07/26/2005                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            LARGE TREE DOWN ON ROAD AT LONG POINT STATE PARK.

&&

SAGE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
536 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0520 PM     TSTM WND DMG     DUNKIRK                 42.49N 79.34W
07/26/2005                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN FROM DUNKIRK EAST ALONG ROUTE
            20.

&&

SAGE

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
648 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0552 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEWARK                  43.04N 77.09W
07/26/2005                   WAYNE              NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

0552 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NEWARK                  43.04N 77.09W
07/26/2005                   WAYNE              NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIRES DOWN.

0552 PM     TSTM WND DMG     NUNDA                   42.58N 77.94W
07/26/2005                   LIVINGSTON         NY   CO-OP OBSERVER

            59 MPH WINDS.

0557 PM     TSTM WND DMG     OAKFIELD                43.06N 78.27W
07/26/2005                   GENESEE            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

0614 PM     TSTM WND DMG     STAFFORD                42.98N 78.07W
07/26/2005                   GENESEE            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES DOWN.

0614 PM     TSTM WND DMG     BYRON                   43.08N 78.05W
07/26/2005                   GENESEE            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            POWER LINES AND TREES DOWN.

0619 PM     TSTM WND DMG     PAVILION                42.89N 78.04W
07/26/2005                   GENESEE            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREE ON HOUSE.

0620 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LE ROY                  42.98N 77.99W
07/26/2005                   GENESEE            NY   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN.

0636 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WELLSVILLE              42.12N 77.95W
07/26/2005                   ALLEGANY           NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN.

0503 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WESTFIELD               42.32N 79.58W
07/26/2005                   CHAUTAUQUA         NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES DOWN.

0630 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MOUNT MORRIS            42.72N 77.88W
07/26/2005                   LIVINGSTON         NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER LINES DOWN.

&&

SAGE