Special Marine Warning 33, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
250 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

UPDATED FOR SVR TSTM WATCH 687

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)...

CONVECTION WELL AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT IS FORMING ALONG
VARIOUS BOUNDARIES FROM THIS EARLY MORNINGS MCS. MORE CONCENTRATED
CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COLD FRONT OVER LOWER MICH IS FORMING A
PRONOUNCED LINE OF TSRA OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND WESTERN
LAKE ERIE. WHEREAS THE CELLS CURRENTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA HAVE
BEEN SHOWING FAST DEVELOPMENT AND COLLAPSE...THE CELLS CLOSER TO
AND ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE PERSISTENT AND WILL POSE THE GREATER
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER EARLY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. WILL GO
WITH CATEGORICAL POPS FOR TSRA DURING THE EARLY HALF OF THE
NIGHT...TAPERING BACK TO LIKELY POPS FOR SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
NEITHER NAM OR GFS ARE DEPICTING THE MORE DISCRETE CONVECTION WELL
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...NOR THE LINEAR MCS FORMING OVER LOWER MICH.
WILL DEPEND MAINLY ON THE TIMING OF FRONTAL PASSAGE TO BRING AN END
TO THE CONVECTIVE THREAT LATER TONIGHT...WITH SOME LINGERING POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS EARLY ON WEDNESDAY.

COOLER AND MUCH DRIER AIR FOLLOWING THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL HOLD
TEMPS DOWN TO THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...ABOUT 20 DEGREES COOLER
THAN TODAY. DEWPOINTS FALL BACK TO THE 50S AND DRY SUBSIDENCE ALOFT
WILL STAY IN PLACE WITH HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
DAYTIME HIGHS SLOWLY CREEP BACK UP TO THE MID AND UPPER 70S ON
THURSDAY THEN A REINFORCING BUT DRY COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH LATE ON
THURSDAY NIGHT WITH LOWER 70S AGAIN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

MILD CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AS THE UPPER JET IS NORTH, AND A
SURFACE RIDGE KEEPS A PERSISTENT NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE AREA.  AN
UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN LATE MONDAY, AND THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK
DOWN ON TUESDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SPREADING IN FROM THE
SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE NUMEROUS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
DURING THE EVENING WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS AND GUSTS OVER 40
KNOTS IN THE HEAVIER STORMS. LOW CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT COULD
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MVFR CEILINGS, WITH OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS
VISIBILITY IN SHOWERS WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.BUFFALO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.NY...SVR TSTM WATCH 687 UNTIL 11 PM EDT.
.MARINE...NONE.

SHORT TERM...HIBBERT
LONG TERM/AVIATION...APB

NWS ON THE WEB AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
445 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

NYZ001>008-010>014-019>021-085-270844-
ALLEGANY-CATTARAUGUS-CHAUTAUQUA-GENESEE-JEFFERSON-LEWIS-LIVINGSTON-
MONROE-NIAGARA-NORTHERN CAYUGA-NORTHERN ERIE-ONTARIO-ORLEANS-OSWEGO-
SOUTHERN ERIE-WAYNE-WYOMING-
445 AM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL NEW
YORK.

.DAY ONE...

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. AS THE FRONT APPROACHES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE WITH THE GREATEST THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SFM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
423 PM EDT TUE JUL 26 2005

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TSTM WND DMG     ARCADE                  42.53N 78.43W
07/26/2005                   WYOMING            NY   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE UPROOTED

&&

TNIZIOL