Storm Warning 43, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 030042
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED FEB 2 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-031500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL PUSH EASTWARD TO LIE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN BERING TO NIKOLSKI AND SOUTHEASTWARD BY FRI MORNING. 
A 970 MB LOW WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC TO 525 NM SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF ADAK FRI AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ150-031500-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA 
SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE
400 PM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-031500-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  
CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED FEB 2 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-031500-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST WED FEB 2 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-031500-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST WED FEB 2 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-031500-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST WED FEB 2 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT.  
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. 
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT.  
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. 
.SAT AND SUN...E WIND 30 KT.  
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. 

$$

PKZ170-031500-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 28 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-031500-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-031500-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 27 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 29 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-031500-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SUN...SW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-031500-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 18 FT. RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-031500-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.  
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 16 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 21 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 19 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-031500-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST TUE FEB 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...POLAR LOW CENTERED NEAR 70N 100W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 50N 145E WITH
A FRONT JUST WEST OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES OVER THE BERING SEA. ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STACKED ABOVE A SURFACE LOW NEAR 45N 160W. THE JET ORIENTED ALONG 40N
IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THEN BREAKS DOWN NEAR 160W AND PICKS UP
AGAIN WITH A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION INTO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE.

GFS HANDLING THE MOISTURE AND POSITIONING BETTER AT THIS TIME...SO
HAVE LEANED TO THIS SOLUTION ESPECIALLY OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING
SEA.

THE MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE THE LOW NEAR 50N 145E. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT JUST WEST OF SHEMYA. THIS FRONT TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE
WAVE DISSIPATES INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA. A SECOND STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH IN A STRONGER FRONT TO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THURSDAY. ANOTHER WAVE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE TO BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE AND CARRY TO THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING FRONT. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE TO PHASE
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE INTERIOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING AROUND THE KAMCHATKA LOW TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP INTO A
SURFACE/UPPER LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE LARGER AS IT TAKES SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE KAMCHATKA LOW. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE GULF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
POLAR JET BY THIS TIME IS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC NEAR 40N
FROM ASIA TO 170W WITH A WEAKER EXTENSION NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 45N 160W TO
DISSIPATE. THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE MAINLAND THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEADS TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN
GULF. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE INLAND...FLOWS
THROUGH NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED GAPS WILL REMAIN AROUND ADVISORY
LEVEL. THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS GREATEST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF
THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT AND UP THE COAST SATURDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO
WORK INLAND THOUGH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 2B1 2C4 3A 3C 4 5A 6A 14
         GALE 2B1 13B
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 05