Small Craft Advisory 106, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST TUE FEB 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...POLAR LOW CENTERED NEAR 70N 100W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 50N 145E WITH
A FRONT JUST WEST OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES OVER THE BERING SEA. ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STACKED ABOVE A SURFACE LOW NEAR 45N 160W. THE JET ORIENTED ALONG 40N
IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THEN BREAKS DOWN NEAR 160W AND PICKS UP
AGAIN WITH A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION INTO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE.

GFS HANDLING THE MOISTURE AND POSITIONING BETTER AT THIS TIME...SO
HAVE LEANED TO THIS SOLUTION ESPECIALLY OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING
SEA.

THE MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE THE LOW NEAR 50N 145E. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT JUST WEST OF SHEMYA. THIS FRONT TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE
WAVE DISSIPATES INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA. A SECOND STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH IN A STRONGER FRONT TO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THURSDAY. ANOTHER WAVE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE TO BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE AND CARRY TO THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING FRONT. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE TO PHASE
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE INTERIOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING AROUND THE KAMCHATKA LOW TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP INTO A
SURFACE/UPPER LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE LARGER AS IT TAKES SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE KAMCHATKA LOW. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE GULF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
POLAR JET BY THIS TIME IS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC NEAR 40N
FROM ASIA TO 170W WITH A WEAKER EXTENSION NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 45N 160W TO
DISSIPATE. THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE MAINLAND THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEADS TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN
GULF. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE INLAND...FLOWS
THROUGH NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED GAPS WILL REMAIN AROUND ADVISORY
LEVEL. THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS GREATEST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF
THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT AND UP THE COAST SATURDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO
WORK INLAND THOUGH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 2B1 2C4 3A 3C 4 5A 6A 14
         GALE 2B1 13B
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 05