Gale Warning 198, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 021418 CCA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST WED FEB 2 2005

CORRECTED AREA 3B

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-030300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A 995 MB LOW 90 NM SOUTHEAST OF CORDOVA REMAINS
STATIONARY AS IT WEAKENS TO 1016 MB THU AFTERNOON AND THEN
DISSIPATES. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS ALONG THE NORTH
GULF COAST THROUGH THU NIGHT.


$$

PKZ120-030300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND TO 25 KT. GUSTS 40 TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES SEAS 7
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 6 FT.

.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-030300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-030300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. 
SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-030300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-030300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND DIMINISHING TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.

.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-030300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-030300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-030300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT IN ICE FREE WATERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-030300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST WED FEB 2 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST TUE FEB 1 2005

.DISCUSSION...POLAR LOW CENTERED NEAR 70N 100W WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING TO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA. UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 50N 145E WITH
A FRONT JUST WEST OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. RIDGE SITUATED BETWEEN THESE
TWO FEATURES OVER THE BERING SEA. ADDITIONALLY...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
STACKED ABOVE A SURFACE LOW NEAR 45N 160W. THE JET ORIENTED ALONG 40N
IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC THEN BREAKS DOWN NEAR 160W AND PICKS UP
AGAIN WITH A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION INTO THE ALASKAN
PANHANDLE.

GFS HANDLING THE MOISTURE AND POSITIONING BETTER AT THIS TIME...SO
HAVE LEANED TO THIS SOLUTION ESPECIALLY OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND BERING
SEA.

THE MAJOR PLAYER THROUGH THE WEEK WILL BE THE LOW NEAR 50N 145E. A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THIS LOW CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE FRONT JUST WEST OF SHEMYA. THIS FRONT TO DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE
WAVE DISSIPATES INTO THE RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA. A SECOND STRONGER
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW JUST SOUTH OF THE
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL PUSH IN A STRONGER FRONT TO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIAN CHAIN THURSDAY. ANOTHER WAVE MOVING AROUND THE UPPER LOW TO
DEVELOP A SURFACE LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR BY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS
FEATURE TO BREAK THROUGH THE RIDGE AND CARRY TO THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT WITH A WEAKENING FRONT. IN ADDITION...THIS WAVE TO PHASE
WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE INTERIOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER
WAVE MOVING AROUND THE KAMCHATKA LOW TO ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP INTO A
SURFACE/UPPER LOW NEAR DUTCH HARBOR SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BE LARGER AS IT TAKES SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM THE KAMCHATKA LOW. THE
SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH A FRONT THROUGH THE GULF SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
POLAR JET BY THIS TIME IS STRONG IN THE NORTHWEST PACIFIC NEAR 40N
FROM ASIA TO 170W WITH A WEAKER EXTENSION NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE NORTH PACIFIC NEAR 45N 160W TO
DISSIPATE. THE TROUGH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK BEFORE AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH DRIFTS OVER THE MAINLAND THURSDAY
INTO FRIDAY. THIS LEADS TO A SURFACE LOW DEVELOPING IN THE NORTHERN
GULF. WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND HIGH PRESSURE INLAND...FLOWS
THROUGH NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTED GAPS WILL REMAIN AROUND ADVISORY
LEVEL. THE STRONGEST WINDS MAY BE IN THE MATANUSKA VALLEY TONIGHT
INTO TOMORROW MORNING WHERE THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS GREATEST.
ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST WITH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF
THROUGH THE WEEK. A WEAKENING FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE WESTERN GULF
FRIDAY NIGHT AND UP THE COAST SATURDAY. DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIP TO
WORK INLAND THOUGH.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 2B1 2C4 3A 3C 4 5A 6A 14
         GALE 2B1 13B
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN FEB 05