Storm Warning 169, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 101121
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-110200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 978 MB LOW 175 NM WEST OF ADAK WEAKENS AND DISSIPATES TUE MORNING
350 NM SOUTH OF CHIGNIK. A 982 MB LOW DEVELOPS ALONG A FRONT LATE MON
MORNING 50 NM SOUTH OF ATKA AND STRENGTHENS TO 978 MB TUE AFTERNOON
AS IT MOVES TO 150 NM SOUTHEAST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE WESTERN BERING TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ150-110200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 AM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
$$

PKZ155-110200-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 AM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 FT.
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
$$

PKZ160-110200-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 AM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
$$

PKZ165-110200-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 AM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ180-110200-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 AM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
$$

PKZ170-110200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 AM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 12
FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
$$

PKZ171-110200-
UNALASKA BAY
400 AM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO NE 25 KT BY AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED AND THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  
$$

PKZ172-110200-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 AM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 40 KT BECOMING NW 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
28 FT EXCEPT SEAS 15 FT BERING SEA SIDE. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT. SEAS 15 FT
BERING SEA SIDE.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
$$

PKZ175-110200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 AM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 45 KT BECOMING NW 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 32 FT
SUBSIDING TO 25 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT BERING SEA SIDE.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT BECOMING NW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
22 FT SUBSIDING TO 15 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
$$

PKZ176-110200-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 AM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 28 FT SUBSIDING TO 20 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT. SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
$$

PKZ185-110200-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 AM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
$$

PKZ179-110200-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 AM ADT MON OCT 10 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
330 PM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ALL THE MODEL HAVE VERY SIMILAR SOLUTIONS OVER THE WESTERN DOMAIN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THOUGH THE GFS SWINGS A TROUGH INTO
KUSKOKWIM BAY WEDNESDAY. IN THE EASTERN DOMAIN THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING THEN THE SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE.
I CURRENTLY PREFER THE GSF MODEL IT DEVELOPS A TRIPLE POINT LOW AND
TAKES IT INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY NIGHT.

UPPER AIR...THE MAIN CORE OF THE 300 MB JET WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS AND THE GULF OF ALASKA FOR THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE 500 MB
LOW OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL MOVE BACK INTO WESTERN ALASKA MONDAY
THEN PERSIST OVER NORTON SOUND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE OTHER 500 MB
LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGE STORM OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL
MOVE INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY THEN DISSIPATE NEAR YAKUTAT
TUESDAY NIGHT.

AT THE SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE INLAND EAST OF YAKUTAT THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE
INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY TONIGHT. A RESIDUAL LOW WILL FORM
NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS EVENING AND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE
KENAI PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING. AREAS OF SHOWERS WILL PERSIST ALONG
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND THE KENAI PENINSULA THROUGH TONIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH THE WESTERN
COPPER RIVER BASIN, MATANUSKA AND SUSITNA VALLEYS TONIGHT.

A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT
AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY AND WILL MOVE
INLAND NEAR YAKUTAT WEDNESDAY MORNING. MOST OF THE ENERGY ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL HEAD FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA TUESDAY THOUGH IT MAY
CREATE SOME AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ALONG THE CENTER GULF COAST
TUESDAY.

WESTERN DOMAIN...THE STRONG LOW CENTERED NEAR ATTU THIS AFTERNOON
WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVEL EAST ALONG THE ALEUTIAN THEN WILL WEAKEN
SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS MONDAY NIGHT AND WILL DISSIPATE SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA TUESDAY MORNING. A TRIPLE POINT LOW WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF SAND POINT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL TURN NORTHEAST
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA TUESDAY. THE FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN BERING
SEA AND THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INTO NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA MONDAY.

THE ARCTIC FRONT WHICH RUNS ACROSS THE TANANA VALLEY, NORTHERN
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE YUKON DELTA WILL DIP SOUTHWARD INTO THE
CENTRAL KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN
THROUGH TUESDAY. A TROUGH WILL DEVELOP OVER BRISTOL BAY AND THE
KUSKOKWIM DELTA MONDAY EVENING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP INTO AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE BERING SEA COAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL FORM OVER THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 172, 175, 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 05