Small Craft Advisory 808, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL ANALYSIS...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THOUGH I
PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION IN THE EAST WITH THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW IN
THE GULF. OUT WEST, THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT POINT. HERE AGAIN, I
THINK THE GFS HAS A BETTER SOLUTION BY DEVELOPING A TRIPLE POINT LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING AND MAKING THAT THE
DOMINANT SYSTEM INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

UPPER AIR...THE UPPER LOWS APPEAR TO BE CLOSELY LINKED WITH THE
SURFACE SYSTEMS BUT THE MAIN CENTRAL WILL REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA
OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AT SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...THE WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA
VALLEY, MATANUSKA VALLEY AND ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING.

A 989 MB LOW 500 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL WILL MOVE TO 220
MILES SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AND DEEPEN TO 972 MB SUNDAY MORNING THEN WILL
MOVE INLAND JUST EAST OF YAKUTAT SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHED INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA BUT
SOME RAIN AND WIND CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST MAIN WEST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INTO MONDAY.

A 973 MB LOW WILL MOVE IN THE THE SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY.

WEST DOMAIN...A 991 MB LOW JUST WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM WILL DISSIPATE
NEAR KING SALMON TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THOUGH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

A 977 MB LOW NEAR THE TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO
NEAR ATTU AND DEEPEN TO 972 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL WEAKEN TO
980 MB 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL DISSIPATE 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT.
RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BELOW GALES AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIAN SUNDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 170, 172, 175, 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 05