Small Craft Advisory 809, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 091731 AAB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
800 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

UPDATED ZONES 125 AND 140.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 972 MB LOW 375 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE TO 130 NM SOUTH OF
YAKUTAT SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND NEAR CAPE
FAIRWEATHER SUN EVENING. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM NEAR PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND SUN EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE MON. A 980 MB LOW 
WILL FORM 75 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR SUN NIGHT AND MOVE TO 200 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-100200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-100200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-100200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
930 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON.  GUSTS TO 25KT IN
CHANNELED AREAS. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-100200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.  

$$

PKZ130-100200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-100200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-100200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-100200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
930 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-100200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM ADT SAT OCT 8 2005

.DISCUSSION...
MODEL ANALYSIS...THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT TODAY THOUGH I
PREFER THE GFS SOLUTION IN THE EAST WITH THE SLIGHTLY DEEPER LOW IN
THE GULF. OUT WEST, THE MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT BUT BEGIN TO DIVERGE AFTER THAT POINT. HERE AGAIN, I
THINK THE GFS HAS A BETTER SOLUTION BY DEVELOPING A TRIPLE POINT LOW
SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY MORNING AND MAKING THAT THE
DOMINANT SYSTEM INTO MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.

UPPER AIR...THE UPPER LOWS APPEAR TO BE CLOSELY LINKED WITH THE
SURFACE SYSTEMS BUT THE MAIN CENTRAL WILL REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA
OF SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH TUESDAY.

AT SURFACE...
EAST DOMAIN...THE WEAKENING FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN KENAI PENINSULA
AND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE SOUTHERN SUSITNA
VALLEY, MATANUSKA VALLEY AND ALONG THE CHUGACH MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL BECOME SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS
EVENING.

A 989 MB LOW 500 MILES SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY WILL WILL MOVE TO 220
MILES SOUTH OF YAKUTAT AND DEEPEN TO 972 MB SUNDAY MORNING THEN WILL
MOVE INLAND JUST EAST OF YAKUTAT SUNDAY EVENING. ANOTHER LOW WILL
DEVELOP NEAR PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND SUNDAY EVENING. MOST OF THE ENERGY
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE PUSHED INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA BUT
SOME RAIN AND WIND CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL GULF
COAST MAIN WEST OF MONTAGUE ISLAND LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND INTO MONDAY.

A 973 MB LOW WILL MOVE IN THE THE SOUTHERN GULF TUESDAY.

WEST DOMAIN...A 991 MB LOW JUST WEST OF CAPE NEWENHAM WILL DISSIPATE
NEAR KING SALMON TONIGHT. A TROUGH WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
THROUGH TUESDAY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
THOUGH COOLER AIR MOVING INTO THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND THE KUSKOKWIM
DELTA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL PRODUCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS.

A 977 MB LOW NEAR THE TIP OF THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA WILL MOVE TO
NEAR ATTU AND DEEPEN TO 972 MB SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL WEAKEN TO
980 MB 250 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DUTCH HARBOR MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE LOW
WILL DISSIPATE 300 MILES SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY NIGHT.
RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS TONIGHT AND INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS MONDAY.
WINDS WILL WEAKEN BELOW GALES AS THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIAN SUNDAY NIGHT.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 170, 172, 175, 176
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

NM OCT 05