Small Craft Advisory 810, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 091731 AAB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
800 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

UPDATED ZONES 125 AND 140.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-100200-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 972 MB LOW 375 NM SOUTH OF YAKUTAT WILL MOVE TO 130 NM SOUTH OF
YAKUTAT SUN AFTERNOON AND THEN WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND NEAR CAPE
FAIRWEATHER SUN EVENING. A SECONDARY LOW WILL FORM NEAR PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND SUN EVENING AND THEN DISSIPATE MON. A 980 MB LOW 
WILL FORM 75 NM WEST OF DUTCH HARBOR SUN NIGHT AND MOVE TO 200 NM
SOUTH OF KODIAK CITY MON NIGHT.
$$

PKZ120-100200-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 FT.
SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-100200-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-100200-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
930 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW IN THE AFTERNOON.  GUSTS TO 25KT IN
CHANNELED AREAS. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-100200-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT OR LESS.  

$$

PKZ130-100200-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-100200-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-100200-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-100200-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
930 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-100200-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SUN OCT 9 2005

.DISCUSSION...

.ANALYSIS...A LOOK AT THE UPPER LEVELS SHOWS TWO CLOSED LOWS...ONE
OVER BRISTOL BAY AND ANOTHER OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA. A
SHORT-WAVE RIDGE SITS BETWEEN THESE TWO LARGE CIRCULATIONS.
SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN MAINLAND ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BRISTOL BAY
LOW. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS ARE PRODUCING AREAS OF FOG
ACROSS THE REGION. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW IS
RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN
BERING SEA. SOME CBS (CUMULONIMBUS) WERE NOTED SATURDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE BERING SEA. IR SATELLITE SHOWS THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS HAVE MOVED DOWN TO THE AKPENN AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS.

A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IS LOCATED UNDER THE UPPER JET NEAR
53N 144W AND IS QUICKLY HEADING TOWARD THE EASTERN GULF. THE LOW
OVER KAMCHATKA IS IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A 160 KT JET STREAK.
THE FRONT...WHICH IS NOW OCCLUDING NEAR THE LOW IS JUST WEST OF THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THE 10Z SHEMYA UP INDICATES 40KTS OF WIND JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

.MODEL ANALYSIS...00Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED THE NAM/GFS/UKMET
WERE ALL A FEW MILLIBARS TOO WEAK WITH THE DEVELOPING LOW OVER
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. HOWEVER...POSITION WAS GOOD. ELSEWHERE...ALL
MODELS SHOWED GOOD INITIALIZATION. THERE IS ALSO FAIR RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY SO HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS MORNINGS SHORT-TERM
FORECASTS. PREFER THE DEEPER UKMET SOLUTION FOR THE LOW HEADED
INTO THE GULF WITH A BOTTOM PRESSURE OF 968 MB LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SOLUTIONS BEGIN TO DIVERGE AT ABOUT 60 HOURS (12Z TUESDAY)
WITH TRIPLE POINT LOW THAT DEVELOPS OVER CENTRAL ALEUTIANS SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MOVES TO A POSITION SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND MONDAY NIGHT.
THE ETA MODEL KEEPS THE LOW FARTHER WEST TOWARD KODIAK ISLAND WHILE
THE GFS MOVES IT OUT INTO THE GULF. COMBINATION OF DECENT COLD AIR
TRANSPORT ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE TROUGH (ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND
INTO THE PACIFIC) AND JET JUST TO THE SOUTH THINK THE GFS SOLUTION
MAKES MORE SENSE. HEADING INTO MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK THE QUESTION IS
WHERE WILL THE LOW ULTIMATELY TRACK. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE GFS
HAVE FLIP-FLOPPED EAST WEST WITH THE TRACK. BASED ON POSITION OF
UPPER TROUGH AND COLD AIR FEEL THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN....WHICH TRACKS
THE LOW TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND...IS THE BEST SOLUTION FOR NOW.

.SHORT-TERM FORECAST...STRONG GULF LOW WILL MAINLY IMPACT SOUTHEAST
ALASKA. MAIN EFFECT ON ANCHORAGE AOR WILL BE GALE FORCE WINDS OVER
THE CENTRAL GULF. THE UPPER LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY WILL MOVE TO KODIAK
ISLAND TODAY AND REMAIN THERE THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A NEW CENTER
FORMS OVER WESTERN ALASKA TUESDAY. WITH VORT-MAXES ROTATING AROUND
THIS LOW AREAS OF CLOUDS AND A FEW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN OVER THE
SOUTHERN MAINLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. HOWEVER...SOME COOLER AND DRIER
AIR WILL MOVE IN AT THE SURFACE AS FLOW BECOMES OFFSHORE TONIGHT.
THE WESTERN LOW WILL MOVE ALONG THE ALEUTIANS TODAY AND THEN
DISSIPATE AS THE TRIPLE POINT LOW TAKES OVER ON TUESDAY. COLD
ADVECTION ACROSS THE BERING REGION ON TUESDAY WILL BRING A RETURN
TO A SHOWERY AND GUSTY WIND REGIME.

.EXTENDED FORECASTS...AS MENTIONED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF THE TRIPLE POINT LOW ONCE IT REACHES
THE GULF. FOR NOW HAVE CONFINED CHANCE OF PRECIP MAINLY TO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND AND EASTWARD FOR LATE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THE
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WITH A SHORT-WAVE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE WESTERN BERING EXPECT
JET STREAM TO MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE BERING.
ANY SHORT-WAVES OR LOWS WILL FOLLOW A CORRESPONDING PATH AND COLDER
AIR WILL BE TRANSPORTED TO THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND...POSSIBLY RESULTING
IN THE FIRST SNOW OF THE YEAR NEAR SEA LEVEL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 172 175 176.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

SEB OCT 05