Small Craft Advisory 98, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SAT JAN 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...HEMISPHERIC MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB PATTERN
THROUGH 60 HOURS. AT 96 HOURS...WED 00Z...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A 500 MB
LOW OVER TALKEETNA AND DROPS IT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY
THU 00Z.  GFSLR 00Z RUN IS WEAKER WITH THE TROF AND DOES NOT DEFINE
THE UPPER LOW.  THE GFS 12Z RUN IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.  ALL
THIS COULD BE A REAL WEATHER MAKER FOR MUCH OF THE AER DOMAIN.

FOR THE ALU DOMAIN THE 500 MB SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN SIMILAR OUT TO 60
HOURS.  ALL MODELS MOVE THE SIBERIAN HIGH INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA.  BY 96 HOURS I PREFER THE SOLUTION OF THE 12Z GFS WHICH FLATTENS
THE RIDGE.  SILL HIGH PRESSURE SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN
DOMAIN.

AT THE SURFACE THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE WAVE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL BECOME AN EASTERLY WAVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE THE STRONGER WITH
THIS IDEA. MOST FORECASTERS ARE GOING WITH THE DRIER GFS AND KEEPING
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH.

NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE WITH THE SURFACE SOLUTIONS FOR THE BERING SEA
AREA. MOSTLY A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS ALSO SIMILAR FOR THE WEST
COAST AND INTERIOR ZONES IN ALU DOMAIN.  JUST A QUESTION OF HOW FAST
THE COLD MOVES IN AND HOW COLD IT GETS.  AGAIN FORECASTERS ARE USING
THE GFS.

THIS MORNING...NOT AS MUCH WIND AS EXPECTED IN THOMPSON PASS AND
PROBABLY ALONG THE COPPER RIVER.  TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT AS STRONG
AS IT COULD BE TO GET THE REALLY STRONG WINDS...ONLY 30 DEGREES
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAGK AND PAVW.  ALSO LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH OF AN
EAST COMPONENT TO THE FLOW TO ALLOW FOR WARNING LEVEL WINDS.  I
BROUGHT THE WINDS DOWN IN THOMPSON PASS THIS MORNING...THANKS FOR THE
JABBER FROM PAVW...AND THE COPPER RIVER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.

HAD TO UPDATE THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST FOR SNOW SHOWERS. PROBABLY A
LITTLE OVERRUNNING GOING ON.  JUST LIGHT SNOW OR HEAVY FLURRIES BUT
SINCE I WOULD PROBABLY GET A TALKING TO FOR HEAVY FLURRIES I WENT
WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM/GALES 3C. GALES 5A 5B 6A 6B 8 12A 12A1 12B 14 15.
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 6A 8 14.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KAC JAN 05