Small Craft Advisory 100, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

.DISCUSSION...
.500 MB...LONG WAVE EXTENDS FROM CENTERS OVER THE NORTH TERRITORIES
OF CANADA TO A 5090M CENTER SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS. SHORT
WAVE ROTATING AROUND SOUTHERN MOST CENTER MOVING INTO THE NORTH GULF
TODAY GETS CAUGHT UP IN THE SW FLOW TO NORTH. SOUTHERN MOST CENTER
BECOMES CUT-OFF AND WEAKENS AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN BERING
SEA/ALEUTIANS OVER THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. BROAD CENTER NEAR THE
NORTHERN TIP OF JAPAN WILL ACT AS THE ANCHOR FOR SHORT WAVES MOVING
NORTH TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS/WESTERN BERING SEA.

SURFACE...
AER..12Z SURFACE/SAT DATA SUPPORTS THE GFS/UKMET MODEL
INITIALIZATIONS WITH DEVELOPING 980S LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTH GULF.
THE ETA/MESO ETA INITIALIZATIONS WHERE MUCH FURTHER EAST...AS WELL
AS...FORECAST TRENDS AND WILL NOT BE USED FOR THIS AFTERNOONS
FORECAST PACKAGES. LOW SHOULD CONTINUE INTENSIFY INTO THE 970S OVER
THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS...THEN SLOWLY FILL AS IT MOVES TO THE EASTERN
GULF COAST MON AFTERNOON. MAIN AREAS OF CONCERN ARE ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND CONDITIONS THROUGH GAPS ALONG THE NORTH GULF AND SOUTHCENTRAL
(COPPER RIVER DELTA, THOMPSON PASS, MATANUSKA) AS PRESSURE GRADIENT
BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION. SAT PICTURE SHOWS DRYING CONDITIONS OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA AND THE KENAI PEN. SUSPECT DRYING SHOULD SPREAD
TO THE WESTERN GULF TONIGHT AND THE NORTH GULF LATER MON AND TUE.

OUT WEST...968MB LOW SOUTH OF DUTCH HARBOR IS STACKED WITH THE UPPER
CENTER AND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN IN PLACE. SHORT WAVES ROTATING
AROUND THIS CENTER WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF SHOWERS OVER THE AK
PEN AND ALEUTIANS THROUGH TONIGHT. DRY OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE SW MAINLAND THROUGH TUE. GENERAL LOW SHOULD WEAKEN AS
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES MON. NEXT DEVELOPING LOW APPROACHES THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS MON NIGHT/TUE...BUT ROTATE BACK TOWARD THE
KAMCHATKA PEN WITH UPPER SHORT WAVE.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...SEE CURRENT PACKAGE.

RMC JAN 05