Gale Warning 123, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 302155 AAA
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1255 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

UPDATE AREA 2B

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-310300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 986 MB LOW 500 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND SUNDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE TO NEAR YAKUTAT AT 988 MB MONDAY MORNING. IT WILL THEN REMAIN
NEARLY STATIONARY AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. 

$$

PKZ120-310300-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
1255 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH THIS EVENING...

.TODAY...NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO N 25 KT TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT. 
.MON THROUGH THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-310300-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-310300-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT FROM BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-310300-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-310300-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-310300-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 

$$

PKZ138-310300-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-310300-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.


$$

PKZ141-310300-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 302346
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-311500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 974 MB LOW 100 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND MOVES TO 90 NM EAST OF
MIDDLETON ISLAND AT 995 MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ120-311500-
AREA 2B. CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO N 25 KTS AFTER MIDNIGHT.
HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-311500-
AREA 2B1. RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-311500-
AREA 2C. PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON AND MONDAY NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-311500-
AREA 2C4. PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-311500-
AREA 3A. BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-311500-
AREA 3B. SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED AND THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-311500-
AREA 3C. SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ140-311500-
AREA 4. COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-311500-
AREA 4A. KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SAT JAN 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...HEMISPHERIC MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB PATTERN
THROUGH 60 HOURS. AT 96 HOURS...WED 00Z...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A 500 MB
LOW OVER TALKEETNA AND DROPS IT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY
THU 00Z.  GFSLR 00Z RUN IS WEAKER WITH THE TROF AND DOES NOT DEFINE
THE UPPER LOW.  THE GFS 12Z RUN IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.  ALL
THIS COULD BE A REAL WEATHER MAKER FOR MUCH OF THE AER DOMAIN.

FOR THE ALU DOMAIN THE 500 MB SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN SIMILAR OUT TO 60
HOURS.  ALL MODELS MOVE THE SIBERIAN HIGH INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA.  BY 96 HOURS I PREFER THE SOLUTION OF THE 12Z GFS WHICH FLATTENS
THE RIDGE.  SILL HIGH PRESSURE SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN
DOMAIN.

AT THE SURFACE THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE WAVE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL BECOME AN EASTERLY WAVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE THE STRONGER WITH
THIS IDEA. MOST FORECASTERS ARE GOING WITH THE DRIER GFS AND KEEPING
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH.

NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE WITH THE SURFACE SOLUTIONS FOR THE BERING SEA
AREA. MOSTLY A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS ALSO SIMILAR FOR THE WEST
COAST AND INTERIOR ZONES IN ALU DOMAIN.  JUST A QUESTION OF HOW FAST
THE COLD MOVES IN AND HOW COLD IT GETS.  AGAIN FORECASTERS ARE USING
THE GFS.

THIS MORNING...NOT AS MUCH WIND AS EXPECTED IN THOMPSON PASS AND
PROBABLY ALONG THE COPPER RIVER.  TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT AS STRONG
AS IT COULD BE TO GET THE REALLY STRONG WINDS...ONLY 30 DEGREES
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAGK AND PAVW.  ALSO LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH OF AN
EAST COMPONENT TO THE FLOW TO ALLOW FOR WARNING LEVEL WINDS.  I
BROUGHT THE WINDS DOWN IN THOMPSON PASS THIS MORNING...THANKS FOR THE
JABBER FROM PAVW...AND THE COPPER RIVER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.

HAD TO UPDATE THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST FOR SNOW SHOWERS. PROBABLY A
LITTLE OVERRUNNING GOING ON.  JUST LIGHT SNOW OR HEAVY FLURRIES BUT
SINCE I WOULD PROBABLY GET A TALKING TO FOR HEAVY FLURRIES I WENT
WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM/GALES 3C. GALES 5A 5B 6A 6B 8 12A 12A1 12B 14 15.
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 6A 8 14.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KAC JAN 05