Gale Warning 122, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 310010
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-311500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 972 MB LOW 260 NM SOUTHEAST OF DUTCH HARBOR MOVES TO 450 NM SOUTH
OF COLD BAY AND WEAKENS TO 996 MB TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-311500-
AREA 5A. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO
CASTLE CAPE
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.MON THROUGH TUE NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-311500-
AREA 5B. COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA  CASTLE
CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-311500-
AREA 6A. BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-311500-
AREA 6B. PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-311500-
AREA 8. SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4
FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-311500-
AREA 12A. EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-311500-
AREA 12A1. UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT AND WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-311500-
AREA 12B. EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU AND FRI...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.   

$$

PKZ175-311500-
AREA 13A. WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-311500-
AREA 13B. WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.WED...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.THU...S WIND 50 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.FRI...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 14 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-311500-
AREA 14. ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT. SNOW. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 9 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-311500-
AREA 15. PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST SUN JAN 30 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED AND THU...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SAT JAN 29 2005

.DISCUSSION...HEMISPHERIC MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON 500 MB PATTERN
THROUGH 60 HOURS. AT 96 HOURS...WED 00Z...THE ECMWF DEVELOPS A 500 MB
LOW OVER TALKEETNA AND DROPS IT INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY
THU 00Z.  GFSLR 00Z RUN IS WEAKER WITH THE TROF AND DOES NOT DEFINE
THE UPPER LOW.  THE GFS 12Z RUN IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF.  ALL
THIS COULD BE A REAL WEATHER MAKER FOR MUCH OF THE AER DOMAIN.

FOR THE ALU DOMAIN THE 500 MB SOLUTIONS ARE AGAIN SIMILAR OUT TO 60
HOURS.  ALL MODELS MOVE THE SIBERIAN HIGH INTO THE CENTRAL BERING
SEA.  BY 96 HOURS I PREFER THE SOLUTION OF THE 12Z GFS WHICH FLATTENS
THE RIDGE.  SILL HIGH PRESSURE SO IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR WESTERN
DOMAIN.

AT THE SURFACE THE BIG QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT THE WAVE IN THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL BECOME AN EASTERLY WAVE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE UKMET AND ECMWF ARE THE STRONGER WITH
THIS IDEA. MOST FORECASTERS ARE GOING WITH THE DRIER GFS AND KEEPING
PRECIP TO OUR SOUTH.

NOT MUCH DIFFERENCE WITH THE SURFACE SOLUTIONS FOR THE BERING SEA
AREA. MOSTLY A ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPING AS THE LOW SOUTH OF THE
ALEUTIANS WEAKENS AND MOVES EAST. MODELS ALSO SIMILAR FOR THE WEST
COAST AND INTERIOR ZONES IN ALU DOMAIN.  JUST A QUESTION OF HOW FAST
THE COLD MOVES IN AND HOW COLD IT GETS.  AGAIN FORECASTERS ARE USING
THE GFS.

THIS MORNING...NOT AS MUCH WIND AS EXPECTED IN THOMPSON PASS AND
PROBABLY ALONG THE COPPER RIVER.  TEMPERATURE GRADIENT NOT AS STRONG
AS IT COULD BE TO GET THE REALLY STRONG WINDS...ONLY 30 DEGREES
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN PAGK AND PAVW.  ALSO LOOKS TO BE TOO MUCH OF AN
EAST COMPONENT TO THE FLOW TO ALLOW FOR WARNING LEVEL WINDS.  I
BROUGHT THE WINDS DOWN IN THOMPSON PASS THIS MORNING...THANKS FOR THE
JABBER FROM PAVW...AND THE COPPER RIVER ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE WITH THE NEXT FORECAST PACKAGE.

HAD TO UPDATE THE ANCHORAGE FORECAST FOR SNOW SHOWERS. PROBABLY A
LITTLE OVERRUNNING GOING ON.  JUST LIGHT SNOW OR HEAVY FLURRIES BUT
SINCE I WOULD PROBABLY GET A TALKING TO FOR HEAVY FLURRIES I WENT
WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM/GALES 3C. GALES 5A 5B 6A 6B 8 12A 12A1 12B 14 15.
  HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 6A 8 14.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

KAC JAN 05