Small Craft Advisory 978, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1245 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...STORMY PATTERN, ESPECIALLY FOR THE EASTERN ZONES TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 48 HRS. CURRENT LOW BRINGING SNOW AND WIND TO
MUCH OF SOUTHERN INTERIOR ALASKA IS ENTERING THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
AND WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. SNOWFALL RATES AND
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON BUT COLDER
AIR SWEEPING IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST WILL KEEP SNOW SHOWERS GOING WELL
INTO THE EVENING ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SIDE OF COOK INLET,
KACHEMAK BAY AND PORTIONS OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. TEMPS AROUND
MCCARTHY LIKELY TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL END
THE FREEZING RAIN IN THAT AREA.

SATELLITE PHOTOS SHOW A PRETTY IMPRESSIVE STORM AROUND 45N 145W WITH
SHIPS REPORTING FULL GALES AND PRESSURES AS MUCH AS 10 MB LOWER THAN
WHAT EVEN THE GFS HAS. THIS STORM WILL TRACK NORTHWARD JUST WEST OF
140W TONIGHT AND THEN RE-CURVE NORTHWESTWARD TO ABOUT CORDOVA BY MID
AFTERNOON THURSDAY. THAT MEANS ANOTHER ROUND OF WIND AND RAIN NORTH
GULF COAST STARTING AS EARLY AS LATE TONIGHT. SNOW AND INCREASING
WIND SHOULD DEVELOP AGAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR BY MID DAY
THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT IT IS HARD TO TELL HOW FAR WEST THE
OVERRUNNING SNOW WILL GET BUT AREAS EAST AND SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE SHOULD SEE SNOW RETURN THU AFTERNOON WITH LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE
AGAIN INTO THE NORTHERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY AND MCGRATH.

WITH HIGH PRESSURE HOLDING OVER THE CENTRAL BERING, THE PRIBILOFS,
FOX ISLANDS, ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST COAST WILL STAY CHILLY
AND BREEZY WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS. INLAND STATIONS WILL REMAIN BELOW
ZERO. FARTHER WEST A WEAKENING FRONT WILL BRING WARMER, WETTER
CONDITIONS TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WITH AREAS OF IFR TONIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT WILL BRING FULL GALES TO THAT SAME AREA ON
FRI.

MODELS SUGGEST A CHANGE IN THE PATTERN MAY TAKE PLACE OVER THE
WEEKEND AS A MODERATE LOW DRIVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA TO JUST
WEST OF ST PAUL SUN AFTERNOON. IF CORRECT THE BERING SEA RIDGE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE MAINLAND AREAS FOR COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WHICH
SHOULD LAST INTO THE 1ST OF NEXT WEEK. A DYING FRONT MAY REACH THE
SOUTHWEST COAST LATE SUN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES WEDNESDAY 120 121 125 130 AND 132.
GALES AND POSSIBLE STORMS 120 THU.

PERCY NOV 05