Gale Warning 965, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 242358
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-251500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 986 MB LOW 440 NM SOUTHWEST OF SHEMYA MOVES TO 480 NM NORTHWEST OF
SHEMYA AT 979 MB SATURDAY. A SECONDARY 993 MB LOW MOVES TO 300 SOUTH
OF ADAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-251500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KTS THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-251500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-251500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-251500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-251500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT. 
.MON...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 13 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-251500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING S AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-251500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-251500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.FRI...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 45 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...S WIND 45 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-251500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...GALE WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 45 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 45 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SUN AND MON...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-251500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...STORM WARNING FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 50 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT AND SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 

$$

PKZ185-251500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING E 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 50 KT. SEAS 24 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-251500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.SUN...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST THU NOV 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE LIGHT SNOW IS STILL FALLING IN SOME AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS STORM ANOTHER ONE IS ON THE WAY.
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SHIP OBS A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS NEAR 55N 141W
WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 966 MB. THE PARENT LOW IS ABOUT
350 NM TO THE SOUTH. THEY ARE BOTH TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF A NEUTRAL TILT UPPER
TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
REAL TIME DATA WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY TO CATCH LATEST
TRENDS AND ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. 12Z VERIFICATION OF THE THE
MODELS SHOWS THE ETA HAS THE LOWS AND FRONTS IN THE WRONG POSITION
WHILE THE GFS/UKMET ARE DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB. THEREFORE...THE ETA
SOLUTION WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS/UKMET...HAS
BEEN REMOVED FROM CONSIDERATION. THE GFS/UKMET TRACK THE LOW TO NEAR
CORDOVA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH MOST OF ENERGY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A RESIDUAL LOW FORMING OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS TRACK LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WILL BE FELT FROM EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. WITH IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE STORM EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR
SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN INCLUDING MCCARTHY. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME FREEZING RAIN
IN INLAND VALLEYS. ONE OF THE TOUGHEST PROBLEMS OF THE DAY IS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO THE
SUSITNA VALLEY. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE GULF IS FARTHER
EAST THAN YESTERDAYS STORM. THEREFORE THE WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT MAKE IT AS FAR WESTWARD. COLD ADVECTION WILL WRING
OUT WHATEVER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE LATER TODAY SO THERE WILL BE SOME
SNOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO
ANCHORAGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD NORTHWARD WHERE THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE MORE MOISTURE. LATER THIS MORNING WILL TAKE A LOOK AT
12Z MODEL DATA AND LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS TO SEE IF WE NEED
TO UP THESE AMOUNTS.

ELSEWHERE...THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA ALONG WITH VORT-MAXES
ROTATING AROUND IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A LOW OVER KAMCHATKA TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL DISSIPATE
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TODAY.

LOOKING AT THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS EVERYTHING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
GULF...RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING...AND A LOW
RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN BERING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG FRONT (STORM FORCE WINDS) THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AND TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT LONG SPELL
OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DO TO LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF GFS MODEL AS
WELL AS AN UNSTABLE HEMISPHERIC WAVE PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 120 176. GALES 130 132 150 175 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 129 130 140 141 160 180 185.

SEB NOV 05