Gale Warning 964, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 250051
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-251500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 973 MB LOW NEAR CORDOVA MOVES NORTH AND WEAKENS. A SECONDARY 997 MB
LOW MOVES TO 50 NM WEST OF MIDDLETON ISLAND FRIDAY AFTERNOON THEN
WEAKENS TO 1008 MB AS IT MOVES TO 120 NM SOUTH OF MIDDLETON ISLAND
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 
$$

PKZ120-251500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ121-251500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-251500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING S WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT. SNOW.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-251500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-251500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON AND TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 

$$

PKZ132-251500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-251500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-251500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-251500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST THU NOV 24 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST THU NOV 24 2005

.DISCUSSION...

WHILE LIGHT SNOW IS STILL FALLING IN SOME AREAS OF SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA IN THE WAKE OF YESTERDAYS STORM ANOTHER ONE IS ON THE WAY.
BASED ON SATELLITE AND SHIP OBS A TRIPLE POINT LOW IS NEAR 55N 141W
WITH AN ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 966 MB. THE PARENT LOW IS ABOUT
350 NM TO THE SOUTH. THEY ARE BOTH TRACKING TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST
TOWARD SOUTH-CENTRAL ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF A NEUTRAL TILT UPPER
TROUGH. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE VERY POOR RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY.
REAL TIME DATA WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED VERY CAREFULLY TO CATCH LATEST
TRENDS AND ADJUST FORECAST ACCORDINGLY. 12Z VERIFICATION OF THE THE
MODELS SHOWS THE ETA HAS THE LOWS AND FRONTS IN THE WRONG POSITION
WHILE THE GFS/UKMET ARE DOING A FAIRLY GOOD JOB. THEREFORE...THE ETA
SOLUTION WHICH IS SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERENT THAN THE GFS/UKMET...HAS
BEEN REMOVED FROM CONSIDERATION. THE GFS/UKMET TRACK THE LOW TO NEAR
CORDOVA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH MOST OF ENERGY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH A RESIDUAL LOW FORMING OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND.
SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE THAT THIS TRACK LOOKS VERY REASONABLE.
THE BRUNT OF THE STORM WILL BE FELT FROM EASTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN. A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN. WITH IMPRESSIVE WARM ADVECTION ON THE EAST SIDE
OF THE STORM EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO RAIN FOR
SOUTHEAST PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE COPPER
RIVER BASIN INCLUDING MCCARTHY. THERE MAY EVEN BE SOME FREEZING RAIN
IN INLAND VALLEYS. ONE OF THE TOUGHEST PROBLEMS OF THE DAY IS
DETERMINING HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO THE
SUSITNA VALLEY. THE TRACK OF THIS LOW ACROSS THE GULF IS FARTHER
EAST THAN YESTERDAYS STORM. THEREFORE THE WARM ADVECTION AND MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL NOT MAKE IT AS FAR WESTWARD. COLD ADVECTION WILL WRING
OUT WHATEVER MOISTURE IS AVAILABLE LATER TODAY SO THERE WILL BE SOME
SNOW. FOR NOW WILL KEEP AMOUNTS LIGHT FROM THE WESTERN KENAI TO
ANCHORAGE WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS AS YOU HEAD NORTHWARD WHERE THERE IS
LIKELY TO BE MORE MOISTURE. LATER THIS MORNING WILL TAKE A LOOK AT
12Z MODEL DATA AND LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS TO SEE IF WE NEED
TO UP THESE AMOUNTS.

ELSEWHERE...THE UPPER LOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA ALONG WITH VORT-MAXES
ROTATING AROUND IT WILL RESULT IN OCCASIONAL SNOW SHOWERS FOR
SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE EASTERN BERING SEA. A WEAK FRONT EXTENDING
FROM A LOW OVER KAMCHATKA TO THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL DISSIPATE
AS IT MOVES EASTWARD TODAY.

LOOKING AT THE EVOLUTION OF THE PATTERN THE NEXT FEW DAYS EVERYTHING
WILL SLIDE EASTWARD A BIT WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE
GULF...RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BERING...AND A LOW
RIDING UP THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
SHOWERY REGIME OVER THE GULF AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND SHOWERS OVER THE EASTERN BERING. THE MOST
SIGNIFICANT FEATURE WILL BE A STRONG FRONT (STORM FORCE WINDS) THAT
MOVES ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRIDAY AND TO THE EASTERN
ALEUTIANS SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE A CHANGE FROM THE RECENT LONG SPELL
OF NORTHERLY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE CENTRAL BERING SEA.

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD HAVE VERY LOW CONFIDENCE IN
FORECAST DO TO LACK OF RUN-TO-RUN CONSISTENCY OF GFS MODEL AS
WELL AS AN UNSTABLE HEMISPHERIC WAVE PATTERN.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORMS 120 176. GALES 130 132 150 175 180.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 129 130 140 141 160 180 185.

SEB NOV 05