Small Craft Advisory 972, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...
NCEP SHOWS A 969 MB LOW NEAR 46N 148W AT 12Z WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NE TO NEAR CAPE SPENCER. SATELLITE PIX APPEAR TO CONFIRM
THIS ANALYSIS AND WE ARE VERY PLEASED TO REPORT THAT ALL THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE INITIALIZED WELL ON THIS SYSTEM. IT IS INTERESTING THAT
THE GFS MERGES TWO CENTERS AND MOVES THE LOW NORTHWARD MORE RAPIDLY
...BUT THEN ALL MODELS CATCH UP BY 12Z WED WITH THE LOW MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR CAPE SUCKLING BY 12Z WED. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE PACKAGE
CONFIRMS THIS FORECAST. WITH A VERY PERSISTENT S TO SW FLOW ALOFT
THIS STILL GIVES SOME CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BUT IT WILL BE
CONCENTRATED FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EASTWARD. THE NEXT LOW TO
FOLLOW WILL TRACK EVEN FURTHER EAST. OUT WEST PERSISTENCE STILL
RULES. THE HIGH CELL WEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS PER ALL
MODELS SO THAT PERSISTENCE IS A PRETTY GOOD FORECAST FOR ALL WESTERN
ZONES AND MARINES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130. HVY FRZ SPRAY 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC NOV 05