Gale Warning 960, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 240041
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-241500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF WILL DISSIPATE LATER WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A 970 MB LOW AT 850 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA WILL MOVE INLAND
NEAR CORDOVA THU AFTERNOON. A 997 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR MONTAGUE
ISLAND FRI AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ120-241500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 16 FT.
RAIN AND SNOW. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 FT.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.FRI...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-241500-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT AND FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-241500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 30 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY THIS
EVENING.  
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES.
SEAS 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN..VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-241500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-241500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT WEST OF THE BARREN ISLANDS. ELSEWHERE SW WIND
25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...NW WIND 40 KT BECOMING W 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-241500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.THU...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT SOUTH OF SITKINAK ISLAND...W WIND 35 KT
ELSEWHERE. SEAS 14 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT THROUGH SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-241500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT.  FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU THROUGH FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-241500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-241500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST WED NOV 23 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THIS EVENING. SEAS 8 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.  
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM AST WED NOV 23 2005

.DISCUSSION...
A STRONG LOW IS PRESENTLY SPINNING JUST SOUTH OF PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
BRINGING SNOW TO MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL. ACCUMULATIONS SO FAR ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE VERY LIGHT...EXCEPT FOR AREAS UNDER THE SNOW
ADVISORY. VALDEZ AND COPPER RIVER BASIN HAVE RECEIVED ABOUT 4 TO 5
INCHES SINCE LAST NIGHT. WARM MOIST AIR FROM THE GULF HAS BEEN
WRAPPING AROUND THIS LOW AND OVERRUNNING COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE
PROVIDING MANY AREAS TO THE WEST WITH SNOW AS WELL. WHEN THE LOW
MOVES INLAND AND TO THE NORTHWEST...EXPECT COLD ADVECTION AROUND THE
BACK SIDE TO LINGER AROUND TO HELP WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF A COUPLE
INCHES LATER TODAY. THE NORTH TO SOUTH UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER
WESTERN ALASKA DIRECTING THIS LOW IS SLOWLY STARTING TO TILT
POSITIVELY AND CREEP EAST. ALSO CREEPING EAST ARE THE RIDGES ON
EITHER SIDE OF THE TROUGH...ONE OVER THE CANADIAN ROCKIES AND THE
OTHER OVER EASTERN RUSSIA.

LIKED HOW THE NAM MODEL HANDLED THE SHORT TERM FORECAST PERIOD. THE
GFS SEEMED TO BRING IN THE NEXT NORTH PACIFIC LOW INTO THE GULF LATER
TONIGHT TOO FAST AND STRONG AND DID NOT AGREE ON THE TRACK INTO
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. WILL LOOK FOR THE LOW TO ELONGATE WITH THE
INITIAL LOW MOVING INLAND OVER SOUTHEASTERN AK THANKSGIVING NIGHT AND
A RESIDUAL LOW OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND FRIDAY MORNING. ANOTHER
NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL SKIM THE SOUTHEAST GULF SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
BEFORE ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE ALEUTIANS.

THE BERING WILL SEE A CHANGE IN ITS PERSISTANT NORTH FLOW ITS HAD FOR
SOME TIME. A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN ALEUTIAN ISLANDS WED
NIGHT AND WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS THURSDAY
NIGHT. FOLLOWING CLOSE BEHIND WILL BE ANOTHER FRONT FROM A LOW OVER
KAMCHATKA PENINSULA ENTERING THE WESTERN END OF THE CHAIN THAT SAME
NIGHT. THE LONG LIVED NORTH WINDS IN THE BERING WILL BE TURNED TO THE
SOUTH AT GALE AND STORM FORCE ON FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS THE BERING OVER THE WEEKEND.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALE 120 130 132 150 180
      ...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 130 160 180 185
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LR/SB NOV 05