Gale Warning 957, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 230825 AAB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
1100 PM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

UPDATED ZONE 132.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 966 MB STORM FORCE LOW WELL SOUTH WILL WEAKEN TO 968 MB AS IT MAKES
LANDFALL NEAR CAPE SUCKLING EARLY WED MORNING. A SECOND LOW WILL
DEVELOP TO AROUND 972 MB 100 NM SW OF SITKA BY EARLY THU MORNING.
$$

PKZ120-231500-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT
BUILDING TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-231500-
RESURRECTION BAY
1100 PM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT AND SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-231500-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND
PASSES. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-231500-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. HIGHER GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-231500-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY BARREN ISLANDS WESTWARD. 
.WED...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231500-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
1130 PM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231500-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING SW 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-231500-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

...GALE WARNING WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...SW WIND 25 KT. W WIND 35 KT SOUTH OF ANCHOR POINT. SEAS 7 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-231500-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.THU THROUGH THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI AND SAT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST TUE NOV 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...
NCEP SHOWS A 969 MB LOW NEAR 46N 148W AT 12Z WITH A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING NE TO NEAR CAPE SPENCER. SATELLITE PIX APPEAR TO CONFIRM
THIS ANALYSIS AND WE ARE VERY PLEASED TO REPORT THAT ALL THE MODELS
SEEM TO BE INITIALIZED WELL ON THIS SYSTEM. IT IS INTERESTING THAT
THE GFS MERGES TWO CENTERS AND MOVES THE LOW NORTHWARD MORE RAPIDLY
...BUT THEN ALL MODELS CATCH UP BY 12Z WED WITH THE LOW MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR CAPE SUCKLING BY 12Z WED. EVEN THE GFS ENSEMBLE PACKAGE
CONFIRMS THIS FORECAST. WITH A VERY PERSISTENT S TO SW FLOW ALOFT
THIS STILL GIVES SOME CHANCE OF SNOW FOR SOUTH CENTRAL BUT IT WILL BE
CONCENTRATED FROM PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND EASTWARD. THE NEXT LOW TO
FOLLOW WILL TRACK EVEN FURTHER EAST. OUT WEST PERSISTENCE STILL
RULES. THE HIGH CELL WEST OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS PER ALL
MODELS SO THAT PERSISTENCE IS A PRETTY GOOD FORECAST FOR ALL WESTERN
ZONES AND MARINES.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 120 130. HVY FRZ SPRAY 160 180 185.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

JC NOV 05