Small Craft Advisory 898, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST THU NOV 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...
COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AS THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION REMAINS OVER THE STATE. A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS CROSSING OVER THE ALASKA RANGE INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP MARINE WINDS UP TONIGHT IN FAVORED AREAS. THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE NEXT LOW THAT WILL DROP THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY LED TO SOME
SPIRITED DISCUSSION THIS MORNING. THE RESULT WAS A PREFERENCE FOR THE
ETA AS THE GFS IDEA OF STRENGTHENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE (VERY
COLD) LAND DID NOT LOOK REASONABLE. OTHER MODELS (SUCH AS THE UKMET
AND ECMWF) WERE CLOSER TO THE ETA ON THIS AS WELL.

FOR NEXT WEEK THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL
REMAIN OVER ALASKA AS A STRONG UPSTREAM BLOCK OVER KAMCHATKA AND
NORTHEAST SIBERIA WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL FORCE A SPLIT IN THE
JETSTREAM...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ALONG 45N AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM DROPPING ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ALASKAN LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 121 130 132 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG NOV 05