Small Craft Advisory 897, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK52 PAFC 032357
CWFALU

SOUTHWEST ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM AST THU NOV 3 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-041500-
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 1015 MB LOW 430 NM NORTH OF SHEMYA WILL MOVE TO 170 NM SOUTHWEST OF
BETHEL FRI AFTERNOON AND THEN DISSIPATE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
OVER THE BERING SEA BEHIND THIS LOW THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. A WARM
FRONT WILL APPROACH THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS SAT AFTERNOON.
$$

PKZ150-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE
CAPE
400 PM AST THU NOV 3 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ155-041500-
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE
SARICHEF
400 PM AST THU NOV 3 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. STRONGER GUSTS TO 40 KT 
THROUGH BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 11 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ160-041500-
BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN
400 PM AST THU NOV 3 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ165-041500-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF
400 PM AST THU NOV 3 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ180-041500-
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT
400 PM AST THU NOV 3 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT...EXCEPT NW WIND 20 KT WEST OF
NUNIVAK ISLAND. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ170-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI
400 PM AST THU NOV 3 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  

$$

PKZ171-041500-
UNALASKA BAY
400 PM AST THU NOV 3 2005

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT AND SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ172-041500-
EASTERN ALEUTIANS NIKOLSKI TO ADAK
400 PM AST THU NOV 3 2005

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.MON...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.  

$$

PKZ175-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS ADAK TO KISKA
400 PM AST THU NOV 3 2005

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.  

$$

PKZ176-041500-
WESTERN ALEUTIANS KISKA TO ATTU
400 PM AST THU NOV 3 2005

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SAT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING W. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 40 KT. SEAS 25 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 25 FT.  

$$

PKZ185-041500-
ST MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS
400 PM AST THU NOV 3 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.  

$$

PKZ179-041500-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR-SHORE WATERS
400 PM AST THU NOV 3 2005

.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. SHOWERS. 
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
335 AM ADT THU NOV 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MODEL ANALYSIS..WENT WITH UKMET AGAIN THIS MORNING. GFS HAS FLIP
FLOPPED TOO OFTEN OUT WEST TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GULF SHOULD PUSH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE UKMET SOLUTION WHEREAS THE NAM WANTED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE LOW STATIONARY TOMORROW NIGHT.

SURFACE..ITS REALLY A PERSISTENCE DISCUSSION THIS MORNING. THE LOW IN
THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH ENTRAINING
SOME VERY COLD AIR BEHIND IT. CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE TALKEETNA MTNS
WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR INTO THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
AND THE CAA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AND TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW AND ALLOW FOR SINGLE DIGIT TO NEGATIVE TEMPS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE INTERIOR AND THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE STRONG NORTH GUSTS THROUGH THE PASSES. BOTTOM
LINE..COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY FOR SOUTHCENTRAL UNTIL THE JET MOVES
NORTH. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNINGS.

SOUTHWEST AK..A WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING OUT OF
RUSSIA TODAY WILL QUICKLY DROP TO NEAR THE PRIBILOFS FRI AND
DISSIPATE. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FRI NIGHT AS THE EXTENDED
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE SURFACE LOWS BECOME EVEN LESS
OF AN ISSUE IN THE BERING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DROP CAA MOVES IN TO
MAINLAND SOUTHWEST AK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS
TO CHANNELED AREAS AND SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN AFTER THE
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING FRI NIGHT. RADIATIONAL FOG IN
PLACES LIKE BRISTOL BAY MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE AS THE RIDGE
MOVES TO THE EAST WITH THE STILL WARMER WATER TEMPS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 121 130 132 150
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW NOV 05