Gale Warning 902, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 041242
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 AM AST FRI NOV 4 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050300-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET... A 989 MB LOW NEAR 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF YAKUTAT WILL
REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND WEAKEN TO 992 MB.

$$

PKZ120-050300-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 AM AST FRI NOV 4 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 10
FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...WEST OF CAPE CLEARE...NW WIND INCREASING TO
35 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS TO 13 FT. 
EAST OF CAPE CLEARE...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT OUT OF BAYS
AND PASSES. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.  
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-050300-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 AM AST FRI NOV 4 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH THIS
MORNING. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY IN THE MORNING. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ125-050300-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 AM AST FRI NOV 4 2005

.TODAY...N WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 45 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS 4
FT. FREEZING SPRAY THIS MORNING.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ129-050300-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 AM AST FRI NOV 4 2005

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY
FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ130-050300-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 AM AST FRI NOV 4 2005

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND TO 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS TO 22 FT.
FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. SEAS TO 24 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. SEAS TO 24 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS TO 24 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS TO 24 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-050300-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 AM AST FRI NOV 4 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS TO 20 FT.  
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-050300-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 AM AST FRI NOV 4 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-050300-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 AM AST FRI NOV 4 2005

...GALE WARNING THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-050300-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 AM AST FRI NOV 4 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N TO NE WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N TO NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
200 PM AST THU NOV 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...
COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE OVER MAINLAND ALASKA AS THE MEAN TROUGH
POSITION REMAINS OVER THE STATE. A SHORT WAVE EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY IS CROSSING OVER THE ALASKA RANGE INTO THE GULF. THIS WILL
HELP KEEP MARINE WINDS UP TONIGHT IN FAVORED AREAS. THE MODEL
DISAGREEMENT ON THE NEXT LOW THAT WILL DROP THROUGH SOUTHWEST ALASKA
FROM THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY LED TO SOME
SPIRITED DISCUSSION THIS MORNING. THE RESULT WAS A PREFERENCE FOR THE
ETA AS THE GFS IDEA OF STRENGTHENING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE (VERY
COLD) LAND DID NOT LOOK REASONABLE. OTHER MODELS (SUCH AS THE UKMET
AND ECMWF) WERE CLOSER TO THE ETA ON THIS AS WELL.

FOR NEXT WEEK THE EXPECTATION IS THAT THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION WILL
REMAIN OVER ALASKA AS A STRONG UPSTREAM BLOCK OVER KAMCHATKA AND
NORTHEAST SIBERIA WILL DEVELOP. THIS WILL FORCE A SPLIT IN THE
JETSTREAM...WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM ALONG 45N AND THE NORTHERN
STREAM DROPPING ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE ALASKAN LOW.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING 121 130 132 150.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

LUDWIG NOV 05