Small Craft Advisory 895, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
335 AM ADT THU NOV 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...

MODEL ANALYSIS..WENT WITH UKMET AGAIN THIS MORNING. GFS HAS FLIP
FLOPPED TOO OFTEN OUT WEST TO HAVE MUCH CONFIDENCE. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW MOVING SOUTH INTO THE GULF SHOULD PUSH THE SURFACE LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF A LITTLE FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE UKMET SOLUTION WHEREAS THE NAM WANTED TO CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE LOW STATIONARY TOMORROW NIGHT.

SURFACE..ITS REALLY A PERSISTENCE DISCUSSION THIS MORNING. THE LOW IN
THE GULF WILL CONTINUE TO BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE
NORTHEAST GULF COAST AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH ENTRAINING
SOME VERY COLD AIR BEHIND IT. CLOUD COVER EAST OF THE TALKEETNA MTNS
WILL PREVENT TEMPS FROM DROPPING TOO FAR INTO THE NEGATIVE NUMBERS.
AND THE CAA ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG. HOWEVER EVEN WITH THE VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH THE WESTERN
PART OF SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY AND TONIGHT SKIES SHOULD CLEAR OUT
TOMORROW AND ALLOW FOR SINGLE DIGIT TO NEGATIVE TEMPS.

THE SURFACE HIGH IN THE INTERIOR AND THE LOW IN THE GULF WILL
CONTINUE TO ENHANCE THE STRONG NORTH GUSTS THROUGH THE PASSES. BOTTOM
LINE..COLD AND RELATIVELY DRY FOR SOUTHCENTRAL UNTIL THE JET MOVES
NORTH. SOME PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MORNINGS.

SOUTHWEST AK..A WEAK LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING OUT OF
RUSSIA TODAY WILL QUICKLY DROP TO NEAR THE PRIBILOFS FRI AND
DISSIPATE. SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR FRI NIGHT AS THE EXTENDED
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST AND THE SURFACE LOWS BECOME EVEN LESS
OF AN ISSUE IN THE BERING. TEMPS WILL BEGIN TO DROP CAA MOVES IN TO
MAINLAND SOUTHWEST AK. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING STRONGER WIND GUSTS
TO CHANNELED AREAS AND SOME ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY EVEN AFTER THE
RIDGE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL BERING FRI NIGHT. RADIATIONAL FOG IN
PLACES LIKE BRISTOL BAY MAY BECOME MORE OF AN ISSUE AS THE RIDGE
MOVES TO THE EAST WITH THE STILL WARMER WATER TEMPS.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 121 130 132 150
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

RNW NOV 05