Small Craft Advisory 847, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1255 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...MODELS LOOK PRETTY GOOD IN THE SHORT TERM. THE COLD
CORE LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CURVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
APPEARS TO MERGE WITH THE CENTER TO THE ESE OF SEWARD. SO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND,  THE NORTH GULF COAST AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL WILL
STAY WET THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOWFALL LEVELS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1000 FT
ACROSS SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI PENINSULA MOSTLY DUE TO THE CHILLING
EFFECT OF PRECIPITATION AS OPPOSED TO ANY ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN. SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 500 FT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ENTIRE AIRMASS
COOLS SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR REMAINS OUT OVER THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY FOR SNOW SHOWERS
AND QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS
LIKELY TO SEE A BREAK LATE SUN AND MON AS A NARROW BUT STRONG RIDGE
AXIS MOVES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DROP OFF MARKEDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN
AT ST PAUL BUT UNTIL THEN SNOW SQUALLS AND FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE. SNOW ACCUMULATION WONT BE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM.

WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SHUT THE PRECIPITATION OFF ACROSS
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AREAS LATE SUN AND MONDAY BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE GULF WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN KENAI AND NORTH
COAST MON AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME ENOUGH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
HAVE SEEPED SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TO SUPPORT SNOW DOWN TO SEA
LEVEL IN SOUTH CENTRAL BUT THERE PROBABLY WONT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES. SNOW CHANCES ARE BETTER LATER IN THE
WEEK AS SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF MAKES FOR BETTER OVER RUNNING
CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
BERING/ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT AND WED. A NICE BREAK TAKES HOLD ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE AREAS 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 185 179.
FIRE WEATHER...GOOD LUCK STARTING ONE.

PERCY OCT 05