Small Craft Advisory 845, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
300 PM ADT FRI OCT 21 2005

.DISCUSSION...

ALOFT.
AN UPPER LOW OVER ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AND A SECOND UPPER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA WILL MERGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND FORM A LARGE UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WITH A
TROUGH EXTENDING NORTH TO THE ARCTIC OCEAN BY SUN.  A HIGH AMPLITUDE
UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON SUN.

SURFACE.
A STRONG LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF WILL MOVE TO PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY. A SECOND LOW NEAR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND
WILL MOVE TO NUNIVAK ISLAND SATURDAY AND THEN TO THE CENTRAL INTERIOR
SUN.  A SMALL BUT INTENSE LOW NEAR THE PRIBILOFS WILL MOVE TO EAST OF
KODIAK SATURDAY AND THEN MERGE WITH THE PRINCE WILLIAM LOW SAT NIGHT.

WEATHER.
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SAT OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE
NORTH GULF WITH THE GULF LOW.  SOUTH CENTRAL WILL LIKELY GET THE
FIRST SNOW OF THE SEASON SAT NIGHT AND SUN DUE TO LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE GULF LOW AND COOLER AIR MOVING IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST.

SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA
TONIGHT AND SAT AS THE BERING SEA LOW MOVES INLAND OVER THE AREA.

STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE BERING SEA...THE
ALEUTIANS AND THE ALASKA PENINSULA TONIGHT AND SAT BEHIND THE FAST
MOVING CENTRAL BERING LOW.  WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS...THE PRIBILOFS AND THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.  WIND GUSTS OF 80 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ON THE ALASKA
PENINSULA.

THE STRONG WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BERING WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY SAT NIGHT AND SUN AS THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHT
BETWEEN THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND LOW AND THE BUILDING RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONE 181
MARINE...STORM ZONES 150 155 160 165 170 171 410
         GALE ZONES 120 130 132 138 172 175 176 179 180 185 350

RHH OCT 05