Gale Warning 845, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 230614 AAB
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
640 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

UPDATE TO AREAS 120 125 129 140 141.

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 978 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO CORDOVA AND
MERGE WITH A 974 MB LOW CURRENTLY 20 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD ON SUN
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO NORTHERN COOK INLET SUN AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH SUN NIGHT. A 982 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN
EASTERN BRISTOL BAY SUN MORNING THEN MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK MON AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN.

$$

PKZ120-231400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
1000 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 1F1 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-231400-
RESURRECTION BAY
1000 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-231400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
1000 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-231400-
PASSAGE CANAL
1000 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-231400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
640 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. SEAS TO 15 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
640 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. WINDS DIMINISHING TO 25
KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 20 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT TOWARD MORNING. SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
640 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-231400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
1000 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...ELSEWHERE N WIND 
15 KT. SEAS 10 FT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...ELSEWHERE 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-231400-
KACHEMAK BAY
1000 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING LATE TONIGHT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS S FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1255 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...MODELS LOOK PRETTY GOOD IN THE SHORT TERM. THE COLD
CORE LOW SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK CURVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GULF AND
APPEARS TO MERGE WITH THE CENTER TO THE ESE OF SEWARD. SO PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND,  THE NORTH GULF COAST AND MUCH OF SOUTH CENTRAL WILL
STAY WET THROUGH SUNDAY. SNOWFALL LEVELS HAVE DROPPED BELOW 1000 FT
ACROSS SUSITNA VALLEY AND KENAI PENINSULA MOSTLY DUE TO THE CHILLING
EFFECT OF PRECIPITATION AS OPPOSED TO ANY ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN. SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO AROUND 500 FT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS THE ENTIRE AIRMASS
COOLS SLIGHTLY.

THE MAIN PUSH OF COLD AIR REMAINS OUT OVER THE EASTERN
BERING/ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA THROUGH MONDAY FOR SNOW SHOWERS
AND QUITE WINDY CONDITIONS OUT WEST. CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND PRIBILOFS
LIKELY TO SEE A BREAK LATE SUN AND MON AS A NARROW BUT STRONG RIDGE
AXIS MOVES EASTWARD. WINDS WILL DROP OFF MARKEDLY AFTER MIDNIGHT SUN
AT ST PAUL BUT UNTIL THEN SNOW SQUALLS AND FAIRLY STRONG NORTHWEST
WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE. SNOW ACCUMULATION WONT BE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM.

WEAK RIDGING AND DRIER AIR SHOULD SHUT THE PRECIPITATION OFF ACROSS
SOUTHERN MAINLAND AREAS LATE SUN AND MONDAY BUT SOUTHERLY FLOW OVER
THE GULF WILL BRING MORE LIGHT RAIN TO THE SOUTHERN KENAI AND NORTH
COAST MON AFTERNOON. BY THIS TIME ENOUGH MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR WILL
HAVE SEEPED SOUTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE TO SUPPORT SNOW DOWN TO SEA
LEVEL IN SOUTH CENTRAL BUT THERE PROBABLY WONT BE ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN FLURRIES. SNOW CHANCES ARE BETTER LATER IN THE
WEEK AS SOUTHEAST FLOW OFF THE GULF MAKES FOR BETTER OVER RUNNING
CONDITIONS.

ANOTHER STRONG LOW WILL BRING STORM FORCE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHWEST
BERING/ALEUTIANS TUE NIGHT AND WED. A NICE BREAK TAKES HOLD ALONG THE
WEST COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT PROGRESSES
EASTWARD FROM THE CENTRAL BERING.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALE AREAS 132 138 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 185 179.
FIRE WEATHER...GOOD LUCK STARTING ONE.

PERCY OCT 05