Gale Warning 843, NWS Anchorage, AK

000 
FZAK51 PAFC 222325
CWFAER

SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

MARINE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND
AND COOK INLET

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-231400-
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 978 MB LOW 250 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK WILL MOVE TO CORDOVA AND
MERGE WITH A 974 MB LOW CURRENTLY 20 NM SOUTHEAST OF SEWARD ON SUN
MORNING. THIS LOW WILL THEN MOVE TO NORTHERN COOK INLET SUN AFTERNOON
AND WEAKEN TO A TROUGH SUN NIGHT. A 982 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP IN
EASTERN BRISTOL BAY SUN MORNING THEN MOVE TO 200 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KODIAK MON AFTERNOON AND WEAKEN.

$$

PKZ120-231400-
CAPE SUCKLING TO GORE POINT
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 1F1 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.  

$$

PKZ121-231400-
RESURRECTION BAY
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ125-231400-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT THROUGH CHANNELED AREAS
DIMINISHING TOWARD MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED AND THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 

$$

PKZ129-231400-
PASSAGE CANAL
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN
AND SNOW. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN. 
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE THROUGH THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 

$$

PKZ130-231400-
BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ132-231400-
SHUYAK ISLAND TO SITKINAK
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT TOWARD MORNING. SHOWERS. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ138-231400-
SHELIKOF STRAIT
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE AND WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  

$$

PKZ140-231400-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...ELSEWHERE N WIND 
15 KT. SEAS 10 FT SOUTH OF KALGIN ISLAND...ELSEWHERE 3 FT. RAIN
SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

PKZ141-231400-
KACHEMAK BAY
400 PM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN SHOWERS. 
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS S FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 AM ADT SAT OCT 22 2005

.DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE PATTERN TODAY LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS PATTERN.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS STILL
LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN BERING WITH A SECONDARY LOW REMAINING
STATIONARY IN THE GULF OF ALASKA.  A 160 KT JET MAX IS MOVING INTO
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH SHOULD TRANSFER THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
EASTWARD...HOWEVER THE RIDGE THAT BUILT OVER WESTERN CANADA YESTERDAY
IS EVEN STRONGER TODAY SO THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SHOULD NOT MOVE OUT OF
THE ALASKA REGION.  SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS...THE
MAIN TWO ECHO THE UPPER LEVELS WITH A CENTER IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND ANOTHER NEAR GAMBELL.  HOWEVER SEVERAL WEAKER LOW CENTERS HAVE
FORMED BETWEEN THESE TWO...WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION FUELING THE ONES
OUT WEST THEY PACK A SURPRISING PUNCH AND ARE BRINGING GUSTY WINDS TO
THE WESTERN REGIONS TODAY.

IN THE EAST...THE LOW IN THE GULF IS STILL MOVING PLENTY OF MOISTURE
ONSHORE.  AS WINDS WITH THIS SYSTEM HAVE WEAKENED DOWNSLOPING IS LESS
OF A FACTOR AND THE LEEWARD SIDES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL SEE RAIN
TODAY IN ADDITION TO THE WINDWARD SIDES.  GUSTY WINDS ARE STILL
MOVING THROUGH THE MARINE ZONES HOWEVER AND ARE FREQUENTLY AMPLIFIED
BY THE TERRAIN.  GALES WILL CONTINUE IN THE MARINES WITH HIGHER GUSTS
OUT OF CHANNELED TERRAIN.

OUT WEST...OVER THE MAINLAND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY IS FEELING THE
EFFECTS OF THE LOW TO ITS EAST WHILE THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND THE
BRISTOL BAY REGION ARE BEING AFFECTED BY THE SMALLER LOW PRESSURE
CENTERS.  SNOWSHOWERS WILL CONTINUE FOR THESE REGIONS TODAY...MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW IN THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY WHEREAS THE SNOW ALONG THE COAST
WILL BE MORE CONVECTIVE IN NATURE AND MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.  GUSTY
WINDS ARE STILL A CONCERN TODAY FOR THE ALEUTIANS AS A RIDGE STARTS
TO BUILD INTO THE WEST KEEPING THE STRONG GRADIENT IN THE BERING.

MODEL DISCUSSION...MODELS DID NOT VERIFY WELL YESTERDAY.
INITIALIZATION INDICATES THEY HAVE CORRECTED TODAY BUT CAUTION SHOULD
STILL BE USED.  FOR THE FIRST 36 HOURS THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT.  HOWEVER AFTER THAT POINT THE ETA MOVES THE LOW IN THE
GULF INLAND AND REPLACES IT WITH THE LOW MOVING DOWN FROM THE
NORTHWEST...WHILE THE GFS LEAVES THE LOW IN THE GULF AND COMBINES THE
TWO PRESSURE CENTERS.  UKMET AND ECMWF FOLLOW THE GFS
SOLUTION...INDICATING THAT ITS A BETTER BET.

EXTENDED FORECAST...AS THE LOW FROM THE BERING MOVES INTO THE GULF
COLD AIR WILL MOVE OVER MOST OF THE STATE.  SNOW SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR THE WEST COAST. BY MONDAY THE
RIDGE THAT WAS OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS MOVES EASTWARD BRINGING
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS.  FOR THE ALEUTIANS A NEW FRONTAL SYSTEM
SHOULD MOVE INTO THE WEST BY MONDAY MORNING AND MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY.  IN THE EAST SNOW IS STILL A CONCERN
FOR SOUTHCENTRAL ON SUNDAY AS THE COLD AIR BEGINS TO MAKE ITS WAY
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE.  AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO THE COAST
MOST OF THE MOISTURE MOVES WITH IT...MEANING THAT NEXT WEEK WILL BE
FAIRLY CLEAR BUT SEASONABLY CHILLY.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...NONE
MARINE...GALES 120 132 150 155 160 165 170 171 172 179 185 AND
OFFSHORE
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

LEW OCT 05