Small Craft Advisory 142, NWS Anchorage, AK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
500 PM AST SUN FEB 13 2005

.DISCUSSION...
ANALYSIS - THE MAJOR UPPER LOW COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA IS SHOWING
SOME SIGNS OF RETRO MOVEMENT WEST BUT HAS ALSO FOUND SOME NEW COLD
AIR -39C AT 500 MB AS PER 12Z PASY RAOB. THE MAIN SURFACE LOW IN THE
BERING HAS FILLED TO 967 MB NEAR ADAK BUT A WAVE HAS DEVELOPED TO 976
MB IN BRISTOL BAY THIS MORNING. NCEP 12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A MONDO SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT S OF KODIAK ISLAND AND A COLD FRONT STRUCTURE ALONG
152W OR SO. ANOTHER DEVELOPER IS NEAR 46N 168W AT 16Z ON SATELLITE
PROBABLY AROUND 989 MB WITH DECENT COLD AIR SUPPORT. THE UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS NOW ALONG 145W OR SO AND THE RADARS ALL SHOW PRECIP ACROSS
OUR GIGANTIC FORECAST AREA. THE JET AT 250 MB THIS MORNING IS VERY
STRONG FROM JAPAN ALONG 35N AT 165 KT WITH THE SPLIT AT 165W.

AER FORECASTS - AS THE DEVELOPING LOW GOES TO BETHEL THIS AFTERNOON
DOWNSLOPE WIND WILL PEAK FOR ANCHORAGE. TEMPERATURES HAVE ALREADY
STARTED TO WARM AFTER A BRISK LAST NIGHT. PLENTY OF SNOW MOVING INTO
ZONE 145 TODAY AS PER RADAR AND THE WEST SIDE THERE SHOULD GET MORE
SNOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AT THE MOMENT THE HIGH WIND WATCH
WILL PROBABLY BE CHANGED TO A WARNING ON THE 4 PM PACKAGE. GFS-190
PREFERRED WITH A SSW JET OVER PAFC 00Z TUE. MOISTURE STREAM WILL BE
AIMED AT PAVW THEN.

ALU FORECASTS - EXPECT A DRY SLOT FOR MUCH OF SW ALASKA AS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVES PAST BETHEL THIS EVENING...BUT THE NEXT DEVELOPER
WILL RAPIDLY PUSH MOISTURE INTO THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. THIS ONE WILL
BE AROUND 972 MB OVER COLD BAY 12Z MON AS PER THE GFS-190 WHICH IS
THE MAIN SFC LOW THEN. ALL MODELS FORECAST A LOW IN THE 970S NEAR
UNALASKA BY 18Z WED.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...HI WND WATCH 101. WIND ADV 125 171 181. WINTER WX ADV 161.
         SNOW ADV 145.
MARINE...STORM 132 150. HVY FRZ SPRAY 130 140 141 185.
         GALES 120 125 130 138 141 155 160 165 172 175.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JC FEB 05